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Bottom set MP vs BB 250bb deep.

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  • Bottom set MP vs BB 250bb deep.

    Whats the best play here? Villain is 26/17 over 50 hands so that dont tell me much, on the flop when he 3bets me i couldn't see how i was possibly ahead unless he opens KJo MP and is willing to go with it on the flop. So seen as i have no idea what his range was i could be up against either 6 combos of better sets and im crushed or he can have 2 combos of KJs and im still crushed or he might if im lucky have KJo 9 combos. To be honest though i dont see many players open KJo in that seat unless there good or terrible, so my guess is the majority of 5nl villains are folding KJo in this seat. Now if he does have say AQo ATs QTs i could easily get all in but i really find it hard to think some unknown player is going to 3bet me with a gutter so what do we do here i was happy with folding the flop seen as 95% of the time you get raised at 5nl you need to have the nuts to be ahead. Ive found myself in this exact spot countless times now and ive never seen a worse hand.

  • #2
    Hi Mike,

    Interesting hand! Firstly I don't think we should check-raise the flop this deep, for 2 reasons: 1) we don't really love getting 3b as you found out, and 2) we are targeting a narrow range for value with this strong an action. Meaning, what is continuing here that's worse? AK, AA, KQ, not much else.

    As played, When we get 3b I think your ranging assessment is ok, except that it's not clear to me he can't have KJo (17% does include KTo/QTo), and it's also not clear that he can't take this action sometimes with AK/AA (maybe in a "see where I'm at" sense, even though that's not good). What is clearer to me than his flop 3-betting range, is that his stack off range is likely to be much stronger. So as played, I would call here, with my plan being to not play a 500bb pot.

    That plan means my turn line will be to check/call, c/f river (when taking this line, I think if we are good, most of the hands we're beating will check back either turn or river, while JJ/KK will make big bets on both streets). Or bet/fold turn (again his raising range to bet/3b flop and raise turn I expect to be very weighted towards KK/JJ and all the hands we're beating to slow down).

    On such deep money/high SPR, knowing we are not going to be thrilled if 3 bets go in on the flop, we can avoid that happening by either check/calling or bet/calling flop, and going from there.
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    • #3
      Good players can 3b the flop with something like AQcc because it puts so much pressure on our entire range (we are capped at 88 or possibly JJ so never have the nuts.


      • #4
        Cheers Dave i like the idea of flatting the flop that would make it so much easier to play, i did call him down this time and saved abit of money by the river. Birday, i can agree that some players will make that move but for some one to try that they would have to know im capable of folding those sets, which i can make some big laydowns but i dont get it right every time so i wouldn't recommend moving me off a set especially JJ.


        • #5
          I used to think I was a capable player. I would have stacked off there and probably lost.Worse still I would have been happy he 3bet the flop thinking I'm winning his stack. I have so much to learn.
          Last edited by tonydolphin; Thu Feb 13, 2014, 07:41 PM.


          • #6
            Originally posted by tonydolphin View Post
            I used to think I was a capable player. I would have stacked off there and probably lost.Worse still I would have been happy he 3bet the flop thinking I'm winning his stack. I have so much to learn.
            Yh i was going to fold the turn but then i was like this card is a blank seen as i didnt think he was raising draw, i thought if i was ahead or behind on the flop im still good on this card but maybe a better thought process was would he barrel KJ here, maybe he would maybe he wouldnt.

            The river imo was an easy fold but i called to post the hand lol.



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