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25nl Deep - River sizing to rep missed draws?

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  • 25nl Deep - River sizing to rep missed draws?

    Stats VPIP: 33, PFR: 24, 3B: 4, AF: 1.8, Hands: 131 Button rfi: 50% Obviously i'm gonna have a crapload of draws in my x/raising range. And obviously i'm going to need to bluff some combos OTR when they miss. Given the draw combos, i'm gonna need value combos like this hand, so to try and remain balanced I want to bet a similar sizing with both my value and bluffs. Would a bigger sizing be more convincing of a missed draw, or would a smaller 60% pot sizing be better with my entire x/raising range?

  • #2
    I think if villain has called the flop check-raise and the turn bet we have a pretty straightforward 3/4 pot river bet here. If we bet larger, say pot, or over-pot we are going to start risking only being called by better. Keep in mind villain would not always, or perhaps even often, raise the turn with just A9 or AK.

    So with that in mind I think we need to think about both what we would like to bluff with our missed draws, though I don't know if firing a river bet with those missed draws will be advisable.

    So I like 12$ to fold to a shove, I think, it is going to be pretty crazy to see a shove from a worse hand here, though on the other hand we would expect villain to fastplay so many of the better hands on an earlier street.

    Either way I would start with 12$, that's what I would bet with QJ and that's what I'd bet with 99 as well.

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