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2NL QQ Fails

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  • 2NL QQ Fails

    Had a terrible session which lasted only 20 minutes before I had dropped an entire stack across the four tables I was playing, thought I'd throw up the biggest losers (basically the only losers that contributed to the loss!) and see if I'm playing -ev or just got unlucky. In this hand, I like my hand preflop, can't put him on a 3 on the flop, still happy on turn as other overpairs I beat / semi-bluffs / over-valued A8 or K8 are still going for it, and on the river I feel he may have hit a jack, and only thing I'm losing to is a flopped set. Turns out turned set. Is there any reason for me to have folded this? Less than 20 hands on the villain so no stats.

  • #2
    Hi Jameisus

    There aren't many made hands that will lead out on this flop as the villain did. He could have A3, but with the paired board this is less likely. If he had a boat with 88, he would probably check-call or check-raise. This leaves pocket pairs and flush draws as his likely holding. Since he flatted preflop, his holding KK or AA seems less likely. Thus we appear to be beating most of his range on the flop. You have a single pair hand that is not likely to improve. Moreover,any A, K or spade will be a bit scary on the latter streets. Therefore, I prefer to raise now on the flop both for value and protection while you are presumably ahead.

    As played, I think calling the turn is fine. Many of the semi-bluff hands would have slowed down. Yet this villain lead out again. So, I would be careful and just call as you did. The river is a bit tricky without notes, is he going to triple barrel a missed draw? Is he going to bet the river with A8? If he had an overpair to the flop with 99, 1010, JJ, the Js just got there. Would he bet with middle pair? He may however think you are on a missed draw encouraging him to bet. I think we need to be careful about calling three streets with "just a pair", but since he only bet half the pot on the river, I think you will be ahead often enough to make calling profitable.

    The important point is our action on the flop imo.

    GL and have fun at the tables!

    Roland GTX



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