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25nl Deep - 2nd Nuts 300bb deep

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  • 25nl Deep - 2nd Nuts 300bb deep

    Stats; Seat 3: Player3 ( $80.19 USD ) - VPIP: 26, PFR: 21, 3B: 10, AF: 3.1, Hands: 443 Seat 4: Player4 ( $65.22 USD ) - VPIP: 18, PFR: 14, 3B: 6, AF: 2.4, Hands: 581 Seat 6: Player6 ( $119.98 USD ) - VPIP: 38, PFR: 8, 3B: 2, AF: 1.2, Hands: 112 Makes me feel so sick that I basically know what hand he has. Can i possibly get away from this?

  • #2
    I'll leave this post open since I'm not sure of how to handle this spot. However, when you 3b on the flop, what can we expect V4 to do? He looks like a solid reg judging by his stats. When the villain raises the flop, it seems like his range could be 33, KK, AA, AK. I would not expect him to raise with Ax of clubs, and 2p hands don't seem that likely either although K9 could be possible.

    When you 3b, AK is probably folding leaving us with 33, KK and AA. Is he going to 4b with AA or 33? I wouldn't 4b being so deep, but I am a nit. What I am getting at is that I think drawing hands are unlikely. Therefore, we can safely call the flop raise rather than 3b. This keeps AK and AA in his range and tries to keep the pot from exploding. V6 still gets to act, but he is so loose passive that I wouldn't expect a 3b from him. Hopefully he will fold though. On the turn, you can reevaluate, but a third club I think would be good for you allowing you to rep a flush that might get a set of Ks to fold (assuming V6 has folded). If the turn is a brick, we can call a bet and get to the river. We are still going to have a problem if the villain jams the river, but by taking a more passive line I think we can keep the hands we are beating in his range.

    Tough spot! Im am curious to hear what the others would do.


    • #3
      GarethC did a lesson on deep-stacked play in the archives and he talked specifically about playing non-nut sets.

      You should be very cautious about playing bottom sets for stacks when you're 200BB+ deep. So for example in this case, you should just call V4's raise and proceed cautiously on the turn and river.

      Middle set is of course much trickier, as your opponent could easily be overplaying 33 as well as fist-pumping with slowplayed KK.

      I wouldn't play this hand any differently from you, although I'm sure you could make a very solid case for folding to the flop 4Bet shove particularly from someone who looks like a solid TAG.


      • #4
        Holy moly!

        What's x/r-ing flop MW on K93ss? I'd expect an 18/14 to be cbetting this flop with sets, AK, and AA and possibly QcJc, AcQc? I think I'm more inclined to call rather that get my money in OTF this deep. We get to keep the weak opponent in the pot and target their range instead of only targeting V4 because I think we are going to lose to the 18/14 when the money goes in but we are more likely to win against V6. Good turn cards would be a King which makes it less likely they have KK, a 9 obviously and a club could either help us get away or slows down the action. I actually feel I want to pot control here because we are deep and we have middle set. I'm not good enough deep so I'm keeping this hand open too but I'd like to think that middle set might not be great to get the money in vs a x/r with this depth of money.


        • #5
          Tough to get away from 2nd nuts at any time in poker but if you have to, this is one of the spots to do so.
          Villain's check-raise combined with their sizing, I think can give you enough info on their range which can only consist of one hand.
          33 will not check-raise that small or even check-raise at all a decent amount of the times, since I believe it will cbet that flop, K9 is too rare to be considered since we have 2 blockers for it.
          So yeah our decision basically comes to the answer of the question, is villain overplaying something or spewing off here?
          If your answer is no I think you can confidently fold.
          But I am not so sure I am folding there.


          • #6
            I don't like stacking off so deep on the flop without the nuts. Villain 4 seems to be a little tight for 6max and we could possibly play on his tendencies to fold more often later in the hand. If he does hold KK
            there will be a lot of scare cards, flush and straight cards will slow him down for sure.

            Floating flop and turn can set up a nice spot on the river to take it away from KK on a representable board.

            If we pot control to the river we can maybe call down on blank cards to win/loose a smaller pot vs 33/KK.
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            • #7
              Originally posted by birdayy View Post
              Makes me feel so sick that I basically know what hand he has. Can i possibly get away from this?
              In a nutshell, if you're sure enough, yes. We need 33% here and only have 4% vs. KK.

              I think the most interesting part of the hand is the decision to 3-bet the flop... what range did you put the pfr on to c/r in a multi-way pot on a semi-wet board? Out of that range, what hands do you think will fold? Continue to a 3b by calling? Would any of these hands (besides KK) 4b rip? Breaking this down may lead us to some conclusions about if we can be sure enough, as well as perhaps point to an alternative line for us (3-betting small or not 3-betting).
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