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2NL - Lots of outs - Did I play correctly?

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  • 2NL - Lots of outs - Did I play correctly?

    Just wondering if I played this correctly? Im thinking the call on the turn was correct due to me being I think over 50% to win, and drawing to either nuts flush or straight. Only thing I was worried about was V3 shoving putting me in a tough spot. I also suppose a turn bet by myself could have been a good play?

  • #2
    You're never a favourite on the turn versus a made hand. Even black deuces have 52% equity. On that board, villain could easily have a straight, set, two pairs or some sort of pair+Broadway blocker, so you might not even have the full complement of straight/flush outs. In the best case scenario he has KJs in spades, clubs or diamonds, against which you have about 45% equity, and can probably get paid in full if you make the straight when villain hits top two.

    Personally, I check the flop. The fold equity on JTx flops is very low in general. When it's JT8 and it's multiway, you have very little chance of winning the pot immediately, so I try and take the free card.
    Bracelet Winner

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    • #3
      you should have made your cbet a bit bigger (i.e. 2/3 of the pot)

      with a villain lead and a reraise OTT, I would have probably folded with just 1 more card to go on your draw.

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      • #4
        In general, these boards are very difficult to CBet profitably on, especially multiway. It is so likely that your opponent has picked up anything ranging from a draw to the nuts which they aren't going to fold. I'd just check and hope you get to see a free turn card. If you are going to CBet, you should make it large, like 3/4 pot as this is how you would play your value hands like a flopped set or two pair.

        Using the "rule of 4 and 2" can give you a rough idea as to what percentage chance you have of hitting your draws. If you are on the flop, count your outs and multiply by 4 to give you your percentage chance of hitting your out by the river. Multiply by 2 if you want to know your percentage chance of hitting on the turn. The same rule applies to the turn, count your outs and multiply by 2 to see what your chances are of hitting on the river.

        Let's assume all straights and flushes are outs. This means you need to hit any 9, and K or any heart. There are four 9s, four Ks and seven other hearts left (excluding 9h and Kh), totalling 15 outs. This means you have a ~30% chance of hitting the nuts on the river. Of course, once you think about how likely it is that one of the opponents likely has some of your outs or might be drawing to the same hand as you, you can reduce this approximation somewhat.

        Therefore you should just fold to the turn raise, as you aren't even closing the action and V3 may well decide to move all in on you both.

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        • #5
          Cheers guys,

          Glad I posted this up, My thinking was a little backwards.
          Some good tips to work on my game.

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