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10N SH - 4bet from BB, profitable set mine?

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  • 10N SH - 4bet from BB, profitable set mine?

    Poker Stars, $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 4 Players Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite. CO: $10 (100 bb) BTN: $10.67 (106.7 bb) SB: $36.46 (364.6 bb) Hero (BB): $11.32 (113.2 bb) Preflop: Hero is BB with T T CO raises to $0.30, 2 folds, Hero raises to $1, CO raises to $2.70, Hero calls $1.70 Flop: ($5.45) T 6 8 (2 players) Hero checks, CO bets $3.12, Hero raises to $8.62 and is all-in, CO calls $4.18 and is all-in Turn: ($20.05) 2 (2 players, 2 are all-in) River: ($20.05) A (2 players, 2 are all-in) Results:

    $20.05 pot ($0.90 rake) Final Board: T 6 8 2 A CO showed A A and won $19.15 ($9.15 net) Hero showed T T and won $0.00 (-$10 net) [/spoiler] Villain is TAG, apart from that not really any reads. In my experience facing 4bets in the bb vs initial preflop raiser is very often KK or AA, I know lots of players prefer to flat with QQ or AK. Do I have to odds to call for a set farm here as he is 4- betting somewhat small? What sort of 4bet size should I fold against and what size should I call, assuming he has only a 4-bet value range?
    Last edited by pockettones; Tue Feb 04, 2014, 07:01 PM.

  • #2
    His 4bet isn't that small really, maybe about 15c less than I would Bo, but big enough.

    You don't have the odds to set mine here. You aren't deep enough to call the 4bet as a set mine. If you'd called the initial bet you would have the odds. If a nit/TAG has 4bet you, and all you have is TT, I'd just fold.


    • #3
      Hi pocket,

      Implied odds here are terrible... I recommend 15-1 to set mine, and see no reason to decrease that here being out of position. We have to call 1.70 more so x15 = $19.50... can we win this much? No, there's $3.70 in the pot and he's got 7.30 left in his stack to win later. So in order to profitably call this 4b we have to win a fair bit without making a set, but it seems like we won't be able to do that over all, check/folding a lot on overcard flops and being lost on undercard boards.

      TT has too much value vs. a TAG CO open to 3b/fold, we can't 3B/call profitably, and 3B/get it in is not great vs. his probable stack off range, so I think we do much better not 3-betting in the first place in this spot.
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      • #4
        what about against a min 4bet? We lose $2 the times we do not make a set, or 87% of the time so on average lose $1.74, but the %13 of the times we hit lets assume we stack him 100% of the time so we make $1.04 (0.13x8), which averages out to -70c which is sill -EV but more EV than folding in which we lose $1 all the time. Does the math sound ok? I know assuming we stack him 100% isn't realistic but against a min 4bet if we stack him even 80% of the time I think it might be slightly more profitable than folding.
        Last edited by pockettones; Wed Feb 05, 2014, 01:56 PM.


        • #5
          Your EV of folding is always zero. It doesn't matter how much you have invested in the pot already, all that matters is the current decision you are faced with.


          • #6
            Ah thanks, didn't know that, but was making the point that flatting the min 4bet will lose less money than folding on average given the assumptions I made.



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