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NL25 Zoom 6max: Overpair vs XR from UTG-Preflopraiser

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  • NL25 Zoom 6max: Overpair vs XR from UTG-Preflopraiser

    Hi, not sure what to make of this weird villain line. Villain plays 19/15 with Cbet Flop 67% and AG 2.7. He is not very positional aware so he probably has a 15% openrange UTG (190 hands) hard to range villain here of course, maybe some strong Overcard flush draws that he wants to XR twice with or some weirdly played Overpairs or sets. But since its hard to range the villain here for me, I am not sure on which board runouts I should call further bets. Maybe just fold flop is fine here too since we are little ahead of his draws and way behind most his overpairs and of course his sets, if the range is somewhat true.

  • #2
    19/15 is pretty tight and its from UTG, he probably only has 4 or 5 combinations of flush draws in his range, AdTd-AdKd and KdQd and you are not even a favorite vs does, there is 9 combinations of sets, and a lot of combinations of overpairs that might play like this sometimes. So yeah Fold flop.

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    • #3
      Hi bald,

      In my experiences at 25nl preflop raisers that check/raise the flop almost never have a hand. I don't know why. I just have noted it enough that if I see someone do this with the goods, I actually make a note on them to that effect. So my best estimate is that he's got just overcards here. I don't mind reraising the flop to protect our equity (and fold to a 4b), or just calling in position and see what he does on the turn. I'm definitely betting the turn when he checks again, as what usually happens is if they miss the river they just check-fold, so we are freerolling his overcards to draw out on us when we check it back.

      River sizing is pretty big... he's probably got KQ/AQ.

      Edit: Maybe Felix or Gareth have a different idea.... perhaps you should filter your database for this scenario and see what they are showing up with when it shows down.
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      • #4
        His line is FOS, so I would call down.

        I would also bet turn, and if he check/raises again I wouldn't fold.

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