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25NL 6Max Zoom- TPWK vs aggressive villain

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  • 25NL 6Max Zoom- TPWK vs aggressive villain

    Villain (68 hands): 35/35/15 AF: 6.50 Not a huge sample size but he seemed to be very aggressive. Unfortunately he hand't yet done anything on the river in the hands I had on my database. Preflop I felt that J8s was a decent hand to try and win a stack with against such an aggressive villain. I think the flop/turn calls are obligatory. Can a case be made for calling the river, is he likely to be bluffing often enough for it to be worth calling?

  • #2
    Hi Andy,

    I fold to his 3b here. I know he's been fairly out of line for his 68 hands, but J8s just isn't good enough to do battle with imo. He is making a very large 3B sizing, which gives us a poor price to flat, and is no doubt 3-betting with a range that includes many hands which dominate us. I would actually prefer 4b/folding over flatting, but we don't have any blockers and his sizing forces us to 4b larger than we'd normally like to boot. I don't think either play is one we can pursue profitably, so folding is the best EV option imo.

    Flatting gets us into a bunch of pickles like this too. Flop and turn are good, river is an interesting question, isn't it? We have to be right more than 1/3rd of the time, and while he's certainly bluffing sometimes, is it that often? I have no idea.

    My best educated guess is to call, based on the facts that:

    -He's wildly aggro
    -All flopped draws missed, which means:
    --He can have busted flush draws, and seems a good candidate to bluff those
    --He can put us on a busted draw and trying to move us off
    --Our range is basically capped here at Jx, so he may feel we are folding our entire range to a shove if he thinks along these levels.

    Still, I don't like it and expect to get shown QJ+ quite a bit here.
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    • #3
      Yes when I looked through the hand afterwards, my thoughts were similar to yours about my preflop play, I'm justifying his large 4Bet and aggression by calling with a crappy hand like J8s.

      I did fold because I didn't have enough confidence in the stats because of the small sample size and there are quite a lot of better hands that can play like this for value and I didn't think I'd be ahead often enough to justify a call.

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