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5NL - Folding QQQ

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  • 5NL - Folding QQQ

    I thought about this one for ages whilst playing the hand. My pre-flop - flop - turn bets are all confident and for value. When he makes a small raise over my small river value bet, I'm incredibly concerned. He is a 9VPP / 6PFR over 47 hands, so he seems to be playing very tight. Also, anything I think he raises for value beats me except sets of JJ or 99. However my pot odds at the end are around %19, so I can afford to be wrong 80% of the time. Does this mean I should be value calling considering the monsters I could beat vs the monsters I don't + the bluffs?

  • #2
    Hi Jameisus,

    47 hands is no real sample, but yeah he sure has been nitty over that time. Maybe he's just been card dead. But it's some circumstantial evidence at any rate.

    I think when we face this action sequence, we are almost always going to be shown a flush. I would guess JJ or 22 raises before the river, not sure 99 sees the turn (maybe, but probably raises right then), and am sure 55 doesn't see the river. KT probably raises turn. His line screams flush, I think it's ok to believe him. Your math is right, we only need to be right 20% of the time to show a profit calling, so the question is, do we think he shows up with worse than QQ at least 1 time in 5 taking this line? While there's always some fudge factor and nothing is 100%, I'd be surprised if he doesn't have a flush at least 90% of the time here.
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    • #3
      Thanks Langoiler. Do you think in that case, he was making a mistake / -ev play to call down with a flush draw? Unless he expected to get paid off big?

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