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5NL Tight fold?

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  • 5NL Tight fold?

    I think this fold was correct, but not entirely sure.. A large part of me was tempted to call thinking my overcards might be live and I had a gutshot, or perhaps I should have c-bet shoved, but then he only calls with better hands? He was fairly TAG but I think he was spewing / tilting at this point.

  • #2
    I would have played for his stack all day long. Prob a leak of me

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    • #3
      My thinking is he only calls with a better hand than mine, but at the same time I'm maybe gifting him the pot when I fail to c-bet

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      • #4
        It's tricky to play against a short-stack like this. I think the decision is pretty close. You've got to call $0.53 to win $1, so you're getting just shy of 2:1, you need to win 34.6% of the time to make it profitable.

        Villain's range is potentially pretty wide here, but against AJ,KJ,QJ or JT, you are a 30.65% underdog, so you'e not getting the right odds to call if he's only got Jx.

        I don't think your equity will deviate much from this against his entire range. You will be ahead of some flush draws while behind others. Your equity vs 9x is roughly the same as vs Jx. He'll also have some stronger hands like sets or two pairs that we are way behind of.

        So I think as played, check/folding is fine. However I might prefer to put him all in, and leverage some fold equity in addition to the ~30% hand equity we have against the stuff he calls with.

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        • #5
          Thanks spand42. I agree folding would generate some fold equity, which would be something I'd normally consider, but as I say he was tilting / spewing so I thought his fold chances were pretty low with any pair, and possibly any two broadway cards.

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