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25NL 6Max Zoom - QQ on K-high flop.

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  • 25NL 6Max Zoom - QQ on K-high flop.

    Villain: (82 hands) 31/28 CO Steal: 2/10 Fold to Resteal: 1/2 AF: 2.6 With the line that villain took, I didn't think he'd have a K or AA very often. Is trying to obtain three streets of value OK or is it too thin and am I going to be up against slowplayed Kx/monsters too often to make it worthwhile?

  • #2
    The most logical hand he would call 3 streets are {KJ, KTs,77}, at least I would be scared your betting giving you something like KQ,AK, so I think I would just X OTR hoping for 3 sreet bluff with Kx hand, because I can't really win any hand you call with.

    To call OTT he has something like {44(3),KTs(2),KJ(8),KQ(2),77(2),88(6),99(3),TT(6), JJ(6),QQ(1),A7(12)}

    There is AK too, but let that hand to have only 12.5% chance (1)

    Hands you beat, excluded(A7,88): 12, but I doubt he will call every time

    Hands you lose: 21, I think he would do a crying call with them all. But then again he would not sloplay all these hands every time. So he would just X river with {KTs,KJ and 20% of the rest} -> giving 12 hands you lose.

    So all in all, because willain has KTs and KJ in his range, X is optimal play. Not to say there is AA and KK too.

    I'm 5NL player, so please don't take my post too seriously. Forexample, KJ is pretty lose play, that might as well translate to KJs only.
    Last edited by braveslice; Tue Jan 21, 2014, 04:54 PM.

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    • #3
      Hi,

      I don't like betting flop, you have position and I rather pot control, also is a super dry board no draws to worry about.
      As played, I would have check turn, I still see a bit more Kx hands than PP from a 31/28. Also why you say with the line villain took, it is a dry board he can easily slow play you.
      River is too thin I think, the way I see it, he might call you or not with JJ but this player is definitely calling you with KT.
      I just think it is more easy to get value from JJ-TT if you check somewhere on the hand.

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      • #4
        This is a 2 streets of value hand imo.

        I'd check back flop and bet turn and river if checked to.

        Comment


        • #5
          Hi Spand,

          It seems too optimistic to me to expect him to call us down for stacks with worse given the line we took. It's certainly not impossible for him to show up with a tricky AA/AK once in a while, or KQ/KJ type hand. But beyond that, getting the river value being worthwhile doesn't just relate to how often we're beat, but how often we'll get called by worse hands. We may not be beat too often here, but we are likely being called by worse even less often imo... if we're not getting called by worse more than half the time that we are called, then it's too thin.

          I agree on this being a 2 street hand if we check back the flop, or check back the turn, and I like either of those options better than betting flop and turn on such a dry board. Checking the flop doesn't weaken our range a lot here imo, as we have a very safe board we might check back AK/AA sometimes (2 street, non-vulnerable hands) and would often check back a board lock like KK.
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