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5NL 6-Max Zoom: AA decisions again - Value owning? Commited?

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  • 5NL 6-Max Zoom: AA decisions again - Value owning? Commited?

    Villain in CO is proper LAG at 33/29/10 (10 is aggression not 3Bet) over 100 hands, high steal of 43% from CO alone, high WTSD of 42%, CBet TBet values also high, so very aggro. After his flop raise, the board is dry, there are no draws. However, if I call his flop raise there will be 50BBs and he only has 75BB left then. Shoving: Am I value owning myself by shoving in this spot?. He could easily have a ten, plus also all over-pairs will call? Combinatorically that's AA-JJ = 6+6+6=18 combos we are beating and AT, KT, QT, JT, T9, TT = 4+8+8+8+8+1=37 (Corrected...thanks Pullin) combos crushing us from the hands he would call with. Calling then revaluate/hope he will catch up: He might be just testing us with say AK, AQ, 99-66s and he could hit his over pair and then may commit? He also reraises 3 out of 4 (75%) CBets OTF, and also 3Bets 50% OTF, so he is really aggro! Folding: It would be a tough fold. I think either calling or shoving is slightly better than folding but I am really unsure?
    Last edited by Arghosarus; Fri Jan 17, 2014, 06:20 PM.

  • #2
    With regards to combinatorics.

    I think you may have the combonations wrong for the ones that are crushing you.

    For instance, there are two Ts on the flop, therefor there are two that are unspoken for. Also you have two of the aces, and so there are two Aces unspoken for.



    So for


    AT = 4 combos
    KT = 8 combos
    QT = 8 combos
    QJ = does not appear to be crsuhing you (maybe you meant JT
    JT = 8 combos
    T9 = 8 combos
    TT = 1 combo

    Total combos are 37 that are crushing you.

    Combos that you are beating based on what you wrote above are KK-JJ 6+6+6 = 18 combos. Your splitting if he has AA.

    What you should do in this situation I will leave for others to comment, because I am with you - I would be really unsure to.

    Although he is super aggro (maniac), so maybe shove on the flop. Also (from what I see at 2nl) I am constantly seeing villains raising these types of flops. Maybe he thinks you don't have anything just a thought.

    Do you see at 5nl villains raising these flops often?


    Cheers,

    Pullin
    Last edited by pullin1988; Fri Jan 17, 2014, 01:17 PM.

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    • #3
      As for me , I see a lot of cbet raising on the board like this, some times he has Tx , but against such aggressive opp, I would call his flop raise and check/shove OTT if he continues his aggression.

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      • #4
        Thanks pullin, yes good point I forgot to take into account the TT on the flop and my hand affect...obvious doh! I have updated my post so its not confusing for other readers.

        Ok so I am getting crushed 37:18, so 2/3rds of the time if he calls. I think I need to go away and work out the Ev of this spot taking into account how many combos he will fold and factoring that in also...

        The majority of players at 5nl are quite passive, especially on the flop, there are very few who check-raise/re-raise the flop, however this player has shown massive aggression and I have played pots with him before when he has also.
        Last edited by Arghosarus; Fri Jan 17, 2014, 06:19 PM.

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        • #5
          I'm not sure of the best line against this opponent, but you might want to add the three combos of 55 that have you in trouble too.
          Bracelet Winner

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          • #6
            Hi Arghosarus,

            I think calling his the superior play here, and it's not even close imo.

            Chances are very good we have the best hand, as I doubt he would raise us with Tx or 55, and we know so far he's been sticky, showing down 42%... so if we reraise, I don't expect him to fold 5x or 77 type hands. That being said, it also seems clear he's got a bluff range here given that his very aggro to a spewy level. All the bluffs are drawing dead to runner runner. Since we don't fear any free cards and reraising would just fold out all the bluffs in his range (probably a significant portion) I think it's better to call, and lead turn small or check to him to further induce bluffs and extract value from that portion of his range.

            BTW, our options aren't calling or shoving, we have a 3rd option... reraise to about 1.75, which may induce some light calls and some shoves. I still think we assume too much risk folding out his bluff range, and we get so much value from him putting in more money drawing dead with bluffs that I think we want to try and extract from that.
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