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25nl - Birdayy the nit w/ OP

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  • 25nl - Birdayy the nit w/ OP

    Stats; btn - VPIP: 24, PFR: 16, 3B: 4, AF: 0.8, Hands: 67 bb - VPIP: 16, PFR: 13, 3B: 11, AF: 11.0, Hands: 134 Villain is pretty tight but aggressive when he does enter a pot. I feel this flop interacts a lot with his cold calling range, and if we commit to the pot we have to shove 100bb with an OP. I also don't think this nit is raise/folding ever. Here's a quick equilab calc; Board: 8c 7h 6h        Equity     Win     Tie SB     18.09%  16.45%   1.64% { QsQc } BB     81.91%  80.27%   1.64% { 8d8h, 8d8s, 8h8s, 7d7s, 7d7c, 7s7c, 6d6s, 6d6c, 6s6c, T9s, AhQh, AhJh, AhTh } Guess it's a fold then?
    Last edited by birdayy; Fri Jan 10, 2014, 06:19 AM.

  • #2
    Is 4x your normal 3Bet/resteal size?

    I think you should include 99 and AKhh in villain's range, I see a lot of players just flat with AK, particularly in position. If he's a nit, I also doubt AT, maybe not even AJ is in his range.

    Against a range of 99-66, AKhh-AJhh, your equity is 33.85%. Include 55 and JJ and your equity jumps to 49.71%

    So I think on balance this is a fold as like you say, villain is never folding.

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    • #3
      If 66 is in villain's range, then I think 55 is too. I agree with Spand that he probably raises 99 on the flop too.

      This is pretty close. I don't mind folding or stacking off in the long run.
      Bracelet Winner

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      • #4
        solid fold

        Medium pocket pair v in his range and since you oop it is a solid move.

        Etienne

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        • #5
          Honestly this is just a straightforward snap fold. Villain, as you suspect/suggest, has a huge equity advantage over you with their raising range, has a positional advantage on a wet board, and there is a lot of money behind. Bet/fold for the win! Also, consider your own range. Don't you have other hands in your range that are better, like 99 perhaps? or AA? Even villain's overpairs that you beat have a gutter or open ender and thus your equity is pretty dead in the water. I wouldn't worry too much about what the villain type is in this spot, either, when they raise and we hold QQ. I think we're crushed against just about everyone, since looser players can cold call with hands that make 2p and straights, not just sets. umbup:

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          • #6
            Originally posted by GarethC23 View Post
            Honestly this is just a straightforward snap fold. umbup:
            I agree completely. The title caught my eye, never thought I'd see "Birdayy the nit" posted
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