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10NL: Defending SB

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  • 10NL: Defending SB

    Villain is 20/17, 50% st BTN, 33% FT3B (3);(121 hands) Is my 3bet from blinds ok vs a min-raise? His FT3B is low, but only 3 sample. I'm happy to call his raise on flop with nut flush draw.

  • #2
    Originally posted by carlk73 View Post
    ... His FT3B is low, but only 3 sample. ...
    Three instances of a situation is not a sufficient sample to base a decision upon.


    • #3
      Hi carl,

      I think it's fine to 3b light here vs. this villain, being a TAG who does steal from the button. Although the sample size is somewhat small for sure, it's enough circumstantial evidence to mix in some light 3b's vs. his button opens, and ace blocker hands are a good candidate for that.

      Post flop: I think we're c-betting way too large, we can fire .85 here, it's plenty. If we bet smaller and he decided to peel with a hand like QcJh, well that's fine, maybe he'll turn his flush and make a big mistake.

      As played, I don't think calling the raise is optimal... I think we should move all in. We have a very narrow value range to move in here, AK+ basically, so we can have some fold equity. We can also catch the villain with the Qh making a move, or a hand like KJs that is trying to "see where it's at" and is planning to fold if you reraise. But beyond all that, we have some decent hand equity working for us with the gut shot and nut flush draw. Against a hand like KdQd for example we are the favorite on the flop with over 54% equity. If you include KQ, KJ, some pockets with a heart like TxTh, and 55/33, we're still basically flipping 50/50 on the flop with these outs. So leveraging some fold equity with our semibluff and realizing our equity when he calls off (seeing both turn and river) seems preferable to me. Plus it provides some balance for the times we are holding a small set or aces ourselves and reraising.
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      • #4
        Great comments, thanks. A key point is the fact that I have substantial equity with the NFD & gutter.



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