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50NL FR : 88 : Mid set OTF vs balancing calling river jams on runner runner boards

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  • 50NL FR : 88 : Mid set OTF vs balancing calling river jams on runner runner boards

    Hi Villain Stats (limited 26 hand sample): 19/19/15.4 Have 1 instance where villain in a 3BP IP, will CBet on flop. Flop: Dry board, I didn't want to check raise here. Am always going to lead out on the turn if board starts connecting. Turn: Believe my T play was horrible here. I needed to bet 80% to near pot IMO - To price out draws and have OPs call or rejam. 1. Is there real value here with particular villains that try to draw out to the river, by over betting the pot? e.g $27. River: 2. Calling the river jam - I do need to balance my calling river range vs bluffs on a 3flush board on the river. Considering my T bet was weak, if I were the villain, I would double float also with air, and jam on most rivers when checked to. Any flaws to my thinking here? Thanks in advance!

  • #2
    Hey, thx for posting.

    Your main concern seems to be about the river play but that's probably the least important street in this hand I think. Calling or folding is pretty trivial but I'd almost never fold since not only do we beat bluffs but we could beat a good portion of his value shove range too (QQ+ Jx).

    Anyways, I think you start to get yourself into some pretty big trouble pre-flop by calling the 3bet. Mid-range pocket pairs and even fairly big pairs (TT-QQ) are tough to play out of position, especially without the initiative in the hand. So I'd fold pre-flop but given that you do flat, check-calling this flop seems kinda mandatory or you could check-raise and hope to just take it down that way. Both check-calling and check-raising look pretty strong in this spot (espeically with pre-flop positions) so I don't think you're going to get any action from bluffs no matter what you do. Keeping that in mind, I would expect the villain to give up on the hand usually after you call the flop if they have a hand like AKo and I would also expect them to keep betting with a value hand like JJ+. So with that in mind, leading the turn really doesn't make a lot of sense here...we're just taking away their chance to bluff (unless they think you're full of it and just jam over your lead...unlikely in my experience) and making it harder for us to get stacks in. I'd check-raise this turn and hope that they stack off with an overpair or with the hand their actually showed up with. On the river, like I said, I wouldn't fold because I think QQ+ would probably shove here, along with maybe AJ and maybe hope for some bizarre bluff line.

    Cliffs:

    Fold pre, C/R turn, Call river as played. Just my opinion, gl!

    Comment


    • #3
      Definitely an interesting and valid consideration from your comment re: calling an early position 3B OOP with 88 UTG vs river play. Being the first time this villain did 3bet my (UTG) raise, and with no extensive history, I could (should) have folded pre.

      As I did call.. looking at it again, as you mentioned.. my line on the T doesn't make sense, since I did check/call the flop. On the turn, bluffs would be betting out as well as JJ+. Leading out the T removes the chance for the villain to bluff. Check-raising the T with the hopes of stacking off on the turn is far better with 84-85% equity on the turn.... Calling river to beat QQ+/JA and bluffs as mentioned - is not so much about calling river ranges given pre-flop and flop play.

      Thank you!

      Comment

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