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16nl - Ax range percentage?

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  • 16nl - Ax range percentage?

    Stats: VPIP: 29, PFR: 18, 3B: 8, AF: 3.3, Hands: 353 Additional Stats: F3B: 62%, FCbet Flop: 50% Villain is an aggressive regular who I have quite a bit of history with. We'd been going at it 3betting, 4betting etc for a fair bit of this session on multiple tables. I believe he's on the level that I would barrel this river with a large % of bluffs, and check hands like QQ or KK. Since i'm pretty polarized I believe he could level himself into calling with a mid PP or any Jx. However, he may have some Ax range, such as Ax, am ambitious A9 or AJ. I think it's rare that he'll have a complete float like AK (which would 4b GII BvB given our dynamic) or AQ once he calls two streets unless he has the nut flush draw. A friend actually said that he preferred jamming to look completely polarized. Would this be better?
    Last edited by birdayy; Tue Dec 17, 2013, 01:29 PM.

  • #2
    Interesting hand.

    This villain seems to know where the fold button is so he's clearly very interested in the hand when he calls a 3Bet and calls two big barrels OOP.

    I'm struggling to find a hand where you're going to get called with this thin value bet. KJ or TT seem to be the only two possibilities and even these are quite optimistic. I think he folds other Jx and PPs less than 88. You're now losing to AKss, AQss, AJ, A9.

    I think AA, KK, sets and J9 would have x/r the turn because of the fairly wet board and maybe your history but I guess he could've slowplayed all three streets if he felt you were likely to bet out all three streets.

    Therefore I think a value bet here is too thin and I'd just check it to showdown.


    • #3
      Hi birdayy,

      Nice spot. I think there's merit to 3 different options:

      -Jamming to completely polarize ourselves.
      -Betting small (like 5.50) to induce action from Jx/9x hands, both increasing their calling frequency, and sometimes inducing hands the weaker hands like 9x to turn themselves in to a bluff and check/jam (opponent specific... this guy as described seems like a good candidate).
      -Checking back.

      While they all have their merits, my personal preference here is option 2. I think it creates the most doubt about our holding. While it's true that villain might expect us to bluff this card, it's also true that villain should expect a fair portion of our light 3b range preflop includes Ax. So jamming might look a bit like a range merge going for value from Jx (exactly what we're proposing trying to do). I think a K river works better for what you're hoping to accomplish with a jam, since it's also a card you might bluff, while missing Ax at the same time. Checking back is the safe route of course, but as described probably misses too much value from Jx/9x hands in this dynamic.
      Head Live Trainer
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      4 Time Bracelet Winner


      • #4
        Cheers Dave.

        I talked a bit more about this hand with skype buddies.

        I think it basically comes down to what level the villain is on.

        If he's a smart player then he should know that he needs to be calling more often vs a jam with 9x or Jx because we are completely polarised.

        If he is an average player then we won't recognise this, and will call a small bet simply due to 'pot odds', and not the fact that our bet looks like thin value.

        Personally vs Dave I think i'd be jamming for example.


        • #5
          Originally posted by birdayy View Post
          Personally vs Dave I think i'd be jamming for example.
          I'm not sure how you could jam the river when you're all in on the turn.
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