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2NL AKo line of play - To fold or not

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  • 2NL AKo line of play - To fold or not

    I ranged opp to A+Q/J tops. When he re raised I pondered him having made a straight but called anyway. Am I always supposed to lose money here or should the draw heavy board and shove have let me know I'm behind? Just a few hands ago I raised 3x with TT OTB and the BB shoved, I thought about it for a bit and hero called and he had 78o so while I build sample and notes on these guys the ranges of people shoving seem as wide as freerolls.

  • #2
    Originally posted by IBNash View Post
    I ranged opp to A+Q/J tops.
    It's good that you are trying to range opponents. However I see a mistake made very often where people range their opponents too narrowly for the information that they have. Yes AQ/AJ is in villain's range, but so are A9, A8, A5, random spews with other aces, 55, 88, semi-bluffed flush/straight draws. You have to take all his possible holdings, not just the ones you would like him to have.

    When villain check-calls the flop and check-raises the turn quite big - this line looks very strong, particularly at 2NL.

    There is a theorem called the "Beluga Theorem" - if you are raised on the turn, you need to re-evaluate the strength of your one pair hand.

    If villain had a flush draw, or AQ/AJ, I think he would just call and be happy to see a showdown or fold. He may also just call with A5 fearing a better two pair.

    However I think villain is springing the trap with something much stronger than top pair - he is nearly always going to have two pair or better here. Therefore I would just fold to his raise and be more than happy I made the right decision.

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    • #3
      Originally posted by spand42 View Post
      There is a theorem called the "Beluga Theorem" - if you are raised on the turn, you need to re-evaluate the strength of your one pair hand.
      +100

      In 2NL especially, where villains are so passive, when you are raised on the turn, one pair is almost never good.

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      • #4
        I think everyone pretty much said everything that needed to be said perfectly.

        After you are raised OTT you should probably be calling to see the river more often than just trying to get it in vs such a strong action because villains will usually only be continuing with the stronger parts of their ranges. Afterwards you can re-evaluate and decide to x/c or x/f depending on the price you are given OTR or if it seems like the villain would bluff there.

        Originally posted by IBNash View Post
        Just a few hands ago I raised 3x with TT OTB and the BB shoved, I thought about it for a bit and hero called and he had 78o so while I build sample and notes on these guys the ranges of people shoving seem as wide as freerolls.
        In a cash game you have to always adjust according to the opponents you are going up against, not everybody is going to be a solid thinking player and thus you need to be looking for ways to exploit them. Sometimes however, these types of players will make strong hands and so we will have to know when to make these folds when we are 2nd best.
        Last edited by Low Rated; Fri Dec 13, 2013, 01:01 AM.

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        • #5
          Villain's line has two pairs or a set written all over it. Check-call flop, check-raise turn reps the effective nuts. You have to fold turn. Villain pretty much never takes this line with a worse hand than TPTK.
          Bracelet Winner

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          • #6
            Looked like villain had a set, lo and behold villain had a set. I am pretty certain too few villains are raising turns without 1 pair beat to ever consider anything other than folding one pair when raised on the turn. Oh and this hand sounds hugely different to the previous button vs blind hand so doesn't warrant comparison.

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            • #7
              @ spand42 and ArtySmokesPS , look at the hand again, the villain is in position therefore cannot check/call or check/raise he can only call or raise as he acts after the hero, not before. umbup:
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              • #8
                Hi all,

                I agree with Spand and others. Spand makes great points about ranging, you are assigning too narrow a range to the villain on the flop saying his best hand is AQ... I assume you still are considering draws as possible, but players do sometimes slow play and just call the flop with 2 pairs and sets. We don't need to be too concerned with those monsters in general because 1) they are hard hands to make, and 2) a villain slow playing one will usually let us know on the turn.

                Then here, villain let's us know on the turn. The turn raise caused you to consider the possible straight, but he could also be raising you with A9, A8, A5, or sets as well. Classic Baluga spot, and also I think a fine spot to bet/fold without specific reads... so bet the turn for value, and fold if raised imo.
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                • #9
                  Biggest thing here IMO: Your hand couldn't look anymore like AK by the turn.

                  A or K high flops are usually really easy flops to cbet and get folds on, yet here you fire 2 barrels and get raised on the 2nd. Unless this is an extremely agro player, you're almost never ahead here. Against a more aggressive player here I might call the turn and check-call the river hoping he's firing with complete air (or some weaker pair), and will continue on the river, but I still get into trouble there a lot.

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                  • #10
                    Originally posted by ArtySmokesPS View Post
                    Villain's line has two pairs or a set written all over it. Check-call flop, check-raise turn reps the effective nuts. You have to fold turn. Villain pretty much never takes this line with a worse hand than TPTK.
                    So if I miss making my set vs an opp that reeks of AKo on that flop, as long as I check call flop and check raise river (which was not the case here) and get opps to fold 1/3rd of the time it'd be a profitable bluff at 2NL?

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                    • #11
                      Originally posted by spand42 View Post
                      There is a theorem called the "Beluga Theorem" - if you are raised on the turn, you need to re-evaluate the strength of your one pair hand.
                      Wow, many many thanks, the more I play the less I know. Reading the entire list of theorems on 2+2!
                      Cheers mate!

                      Thank you all for the feedback, I most certainly did not put him past flatting with a decent pocket pair but for some reason I decided he did not have a straight and paid him to confirm it.

                      I will work keep working on this. The real issue is that I cannot fold AA/AK/KK and I'm told shoving AA/KK over 25BBs deep is not EV


                      Also just realised that if I'd finished reading Arty's blog I would've seen the theorems, even had the page BM.
                      Last edited by IBNash; Fri Dec 13, 2013, 12:51 PM.

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                      • #12
                        Originally posted by IBNash View Post
                        Wow, many many thanks, the more I play the less I know. Reading the entire list of theorems on 2+2!
                        You might want to watch this excellent video explaining some of the most well known "theorems" and whether they are any good or not:

                        http://www.pokerschoolonline.com/art...Poker-Theorems

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                        • #13
                          Originally posted by IBNash View Post
                          So if I miss making my set vs an opp that reeks of AKo on that flop, as long as I check call flop and check raise river (which was not the case here) and get opps to fold 1/3rd of the time it'd be a profitable bluff at 2NL?
                          Not at 2NL, no. Most of your opponents aren't aware of Baluga. Nor are they capable of ranging you. In short, your fancy bluffs will get called too often, so check-raising after a villain has bet 2 streets is pretty spewy at 2NL. Save yoru bluffs for when you KNOW a villain is capable of folding.
                          Originally posted by IBNash View Post
                          Also just realised that if I'd finished reading Arty's blog I would've seen the theorems, even had the page BM.
                          Indeed. Baluga theorem is the first of 15 useful "rules" you can use to crush 2NL, as listed in this blog. (Another maxim I featured is "Don't go broke with one pair". )
                          Bracelet Winner

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                          • #14
                            Originally posted by IBNash View Post
                            So if I miss making my set vs an opp that reeks of AKo on that flop, as long as I check call flop and check raise river (which was not the case here) and get opps to fold 1/3rd of the time it'd be a profitable bluff at 2NL?
                            Trying to bluff bad players off of top pair is lighting money on fire. Especially so if it's TPTK with AK.

                            This is a nice bluff line on deep stacks vs. players who are ranging and can fold a hand like top pair, as long as it's used judiciously.

                            The majority of your 2NL player pool will be bad players.
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