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5NL Zoom (6 max) - River decision with TPTK on w/board

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  • 5NL Zoom (6 max) - River decision with TPTK on w/board

    Background: Hero Stats: VPIP 17; PFR 13; 3bet 3 (869 hands) Villain: No information All pretty standard until the river... when Villain decides to lead out with what appears to be a value bet? My thoughts: Obviously s/d & bdfd gets there OTR... but the only combos that seem to make sense are pairs+draws & imo this will largely consist of Kx, Jx type hands with heart[s] & spades as would expect sets, 2pair combos to bet, x/raise OTF or OTT. Hands we are losing to OTR include: AhJh, KxJh, QhJh, JhTh etc. Questions: 1). Do you agree with my analysis / Villain's range? 2). Is Villain ever semi bluffing / bluffing in this spot? 3). Without reads... Do we call or fold OTR? Welcome your thoughts / comments? Tony

  • #2
    Very interested what the analysis of this hand will be.

    My idea is it looks like a set of 2 or 3. I cannot see any one bet a hand worse than ours in this spot.
    Anyway, I'd fold here

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    • #3
      I think i call

      I think i call, as im pretty sure a set will reraise the turn.....

      he could have As4s which he would flat call all way ,but i think this is unlikely,

      possibly 55 but i think he would fold the turn,

      personally i think he has missed, and is turning a fd into a bluff......

      most of the hands that are beating you would have reraised the trun, so i think you are ahead..

      just my opinion

      good luck at the tables...

      Toby

      Comment


      • #4
        JJ will fit very well with the response of Villain to Hero beting and I saw a lot of hands of type AK over JJ or QQ on Poker Stars. Also it is possible that villain waited until the river to be sure that a spade flush it not possible before hiting the river with a value bet for his supposed set, be it 222, 333 or JJJ. The possible hearts flush could have made him not to push with an all-in on the river, while that would have been the normal betting in a Zoom game of this kind. Semi-bluf is not appropiate to this situation (on the river!). There are a lot of blufing posibilities for the cards on the table and only a pair of K cannot respond to them by paying. So I would fold here, but I am a poor player. Someone can think to make an all-in reraise in this position, to emulate a hearts flush, because the villain is certainly afraid of something by not betting more. But again, the small bet could only be the spark inviting the Hero to bet more and loose more.
        2 Time Bracelet Winner


        Comment


        • #5
          im folding here, vilian has at least 2 pair. calling in this spot in -EV longterm.
          Your range is prity polarized in my op, this is almost never a bluff at 05-10.

          Regards

          Sick_run27

          Comment


          • #6
            Originally posted by Prodigy237 View Post
            My thoughts: Obviously s/d & bdfd gets there OTR... but the only combos that seem to make sense are pairs+draws & imo this will largely consist of Kx, Jx type hands with heart[s] & spades as would expect sets, 2pair combos to bet, x/raise OTF or OTT. Hands we are losing to OTR include: AhJh, KxJh, QhJh, JhTh etc. Questions: 1). Do you agree with my analysis / Villain's range? 2). Is Villain ever semi bluffing / bluffing in this spot? 3). Without reads... Do we call or fold OTR? Welcome your thoughts / comments? Tony
            Hey Tony, 1.) Yes, mostly. I would also factor in a couple of FD, although you do block a couple with the - but on the other hand villain could potentially have some FDs. 2.) I can think of a couple of bluffs only, most draws get there or you block them. 3.) Tough, I think I would call a non-heart river almost always but with the BDFD and 64/A4 getting there I think we should consider folding. Then again, people do take crazy lines at the micros and we are somewhere at the top of our range - I don't mind calling tbh.
            Live Trainer



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            • #7
              Originally posted by PSO-xflixx View Post
              Hey Tony, 1.) Yes, mostly. I would also factor in a couple of FD, although you do block a couple with the - but on the other hand villain could potentially have some FDs. 2.) I can think of a couple of bluffs only, most draws get there or you block them. 3.) Tough, I think I would call a non-heart river almost always but with the BDFD and 64/A4 getting there I think we should consider folding. Then again, people do take crazy lines at the micros and we are somewhere at the top of our range - I don't mind calling tbh.
              Hey Flix, Thank you for your comments / feedback [... as always]. Interestingly you say you would continue on non-heart, because at the time I thought BDFD was less likely & was more concerned if another spade hit OTR [... whilst I was blocking NFD] because as you point out is a real possibility. I had factored in s/draws that Villain may call p/f & continue with, but thought we could probably limit these to ; or [3 combos] as would expect to fold out a lot of non-suited 64, A4 combos p/f or OTT... & finally bluffs / semi bluffs with pps, busted FD / SD? My plan OTR was to bet/fold to a raise [... as I thought we could get value from worse Kx, Jx hands], but as Villain led out for just over half pot bet [... which is the size I would have chosen] I decided the make the call Vs Unknown Villain. Here's how the hand played out. Tony umbup:
              Last edited by Prodigy237; Tue Dec 10, 2013, 03:21 PM. Reason: Added

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              • #8
                Hey Prodigy. I find that at micros when villains donk the river when the draws hit they have it. In this case the guy just spazzed and you made a good call, but at the longterm i don't think this is +EV vs a unkown.

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