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25nl zoom AA bad run out

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  • 25nl zoom AA bad run out

    Hi PSO

    vs 57/43 8 hands first time he gets 3bet. He was playing 2 tables so can't really say if he was rec or reg, I don't see many regs opening 2.5x from MP, so maybe a rec.

    PokerStars Zoom No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (6 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from

    saw flop | saw showdown

    Button ($63.82)
    SB ($33.53)
    Hero (BB) ($49.62)
    UTG ($50.83)
    MP ($26.19)
    CO ($25)

    Preflop: Hero is BB with A, A
    1 fold, MP raises to $0.62, 3 folds, Hero raises to $2.10, MP calls $1.48

    Flop: ($4.30) 10, J, 6 (2 players)
    Hero bets $3, MP calls $3

    Turn: ($10.30) 8 (2 players)
    Hero bets $6.40, MP calls $6.40

    River: ($23.10) 7 (2 players)
    Hero checks, MP bets $14.69 (All-In), Hero....

    At this stakes I expect most people to check there 1 pair hands there on the river,and it's kind of rare to see big river bluffs.

    Sets and two pair would raise most of the times on that flop, AKdd,AQdd,KQdd and 89dd sometimes would raise as well.

    So I am ahead of some overplayed QQ, AQdd, AKdd that didn't raise flop KQ and not much more.

    I am behind 99, 98, J9, T9, any wear played set or two pairs.

    What is the best line? shove river, check-call or check-fold?

  • #2
    My noob opinion: you need to be correct 28% so x/c can’t be very much wrong – so I would call. He surely has many missed draws in his range.


    • #3
      I think this is another straightforward fold considering the amount of 9x and better hands he can have in his range and also considering the few bluffs he can have. You beat KQ and XYdd that doesn't have a pair. Compared to the hands that beat you I think this is a check-fold given this opponent.


      • #4
        Any point in x/c turn, x/f river? I really don't like that 8. Though we are still getting called by worse its gonna bloat the pot by the river when we just have one pair on a coordinated board. What are we doing on a blank?


        • #5
          I don't think there is any point in checking turn, that 8 doesn't look that scary to me it just makes him call with more hands that now have a pair+straight draw. The only hands that improve if we were ahead on the flop, is the gutshot 79, Q9(seems unlikely being a 3bet pot)and maybe T8. Any diamond draw is going to call us, KQ,J9,T9,89,99,AJ,JQ.

          On a blank river I think its probably a call, only 79 and T8 seems the hands that got there and seems that other strong hands like sets and two pair would have raise flop, its just that the 7 complete so many 9x hands in his range.

          Folded this one too, I was feeling like I was giving up too many times on 3bet pots lately, that I thought it could be a leak, glad it is not the case.



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