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25NL 6m - valueless limbo post flop?

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  • 25NL 6m - valueless limbo post flop?

    I thought this hand would make a nice discussion, and would like some feedback as well.

    Stats are VPIP/PFR/3B (hands)

    $0.25 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
    Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

    BB: $69.49 26/18/5 (392)
    UTG: $10.92
    Hero (MP): $25.00
    CO: $10.00 13/12/7 (3K)
    BTN: $12.75 27/21/13 (751)
    SB: $25.00 17/14/4 (7K)

    SB posts SB $0.10, BB posts BB $0.25

    Pre Flop: (pot: $0.35) Hero has A:heart: T:spade:

    fold, Hero raises to $0.75, fold, fold, SB calls $0.65, fold

    Flop: ($1.75, 2 players) A:diamond: K:heart: K:spade:
    SB checks, Hero checks

    Turn: ($1.75, 2 players) 4:spade:
    SB checks, Hero bets $0.71, SB calls $0.71

    River: ($3.17, 2 players) Q:heart:
    SB checks, Hero checks

    So we make a pretty standard open I think, targeting primarily the BB. We get called by a nitty mass multi-tabling reg however.

    How do we get value post flop in a spot like this, with this board texture? Is getting value even possible?

    I don't think villain is calling a flop c-bet with any worse hands, so we check behind and actually would be comfortable folding if he bets the turn (opponents specific here obviously). He checks the turn so we make a smallish delayed c-bet. Now we may pick up calls from a few worse hands, but this still may be too thin. However, at least we protect our equity against pocket pairs, like if he's got 77, he's probably not putting another penny in the pot unless he draws out, so we don't allow him to realize his equity in 2 outing the river in those cases.

    I think the check behind on the river, as played, is likely a mistake... we should maybe fire a big barrel here to get him off of specifically AQ/AJ type hands... given the player I think he can find folds here to a solid river barrel, and we are subsidized on the play by the river card, as we now chop with those holdings if he makes the call.

    Thoughts?
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  • #2
    My instant reaction was that your line looks "standard", and it's an ugly "one street of value" spot, but it's certainly an interesting hand. I think we can sometimes bet flop and get called by underpairs, and then check turn for pot control, planning to fold if villain leads at any point, but I think I prefer checking flop and betting turn in this spot, like you did.
    Turn bet seems a little small, but that may be a good sizing at 25NL against villain's likely range.
    I tend to check back rivers a bit too often (a leak I'm still trying to fix), and would almost certainly do so here, but I agree that you can sometimes get him off a chop if you fire a decent bet. The fact that villain didn't lead the river makes me suspect he's marginal, with something like AJ at best. In the heat of the moment, I'd probably fail to see I was chopping with that, but I think that turning your hand into a bluff has some merit here. As for river sizing, I'm not sure. I make the nitty check-back too often to have much experience of that.
    Bracelet Winner

    Comment


    • #3
      Hi Dave

      One piece of the puzzle would help here. How does the villain view you? He must have 7K hands on you as well. This may impact his pf calling rang oop and well as OTT. Moreover, will he view a river bet as a value bet from you or be suspicious? As it stands, I put him on pocket pairs and suited broadway cards preflop as well as AJo+. His 3b range looks primarily value. So, Im guessing he is more likely to fold hands like KJo oop rather than 3b them.

      If I were playing, I would probably have bet bigger on the turn as well. It seems to potentially fit with you holding a wide range of decent hands K10, KJ, KQ and AK, as well as A10+ and Ax of spades picking up a flush draw. Regardless of the turn betsize, I would bet-fold the river. He looks pretty plain vanilla. If he was holding a K, and had he flopped trips or a boat, I would have expected him to bet the flop or raise the turn at least. And I would expect him to bet the river with QQ rather than letting you check it down. The only hand that seems a concern would be J10 of spades.

      Normally a pot sized bluff bet would need to work 50% of the time to be profitable. Here is needs to work considerably less since it looks like you will be splitting a large part of the time you get called. I agree, a tight reg is probably able to find a fold here often enough with hands that are splitting to make betting a good option. I can't see him coming over the top with a raise with anything short of a full house and those just dont seem likely.

      Greg

      Comment


      • #4
        It's brilliant to read the views of you guys.

        My natural reaction was to just Cbet the flop and turn and check the river. I would then by very annoyed when he turned over AJ and I've spewed off two streets worth of bets without much upside.

        What are you putting such a nitty guy's calling range from the SB on? Presumably something like AT-AQ, 22-TT, KQ.

        I suppose he might call a turn c-bet with 55-TT just to see what you do on the river. There are relatively few combos of AJ or AQ left. Surely you would have heard about KQ by the turn.

        Therefore I suppose you have to value-bet the river and hope he calls down with some pocket pair.

        Comment


        • #5
          With the opp being tight/passive (the key being passive)... what would they call a river bet with that I could beat? Qx (mostly if spades)

          If the opp has an ace, we chop and I put the pressure on them if I bet (do they really want to call to chop)?

          I think I'm going to make a bit larger than normal value bet on the river (say $2). Yes, I'm beat by a K, but there are hands that I can get value from... and if a passive guy raises me, then I can pretty easily fold as they then have a K.

          I wouldn't want to thin value it because then they could end up calling to chop it with me.

          John (JWK24)
          Super-Moderator



          6 Time Bracelet Winner


          Comment


          • #6
            @John, do you consider 17/14 passive in general, or do you simply mean the line he has taken in this hand? He looks like a careful, low variance multitabler, but I didn't peg him as being passive in general.

            Aslo, are you betting the river hoping/expecting to get called by worse, or to force hands you are splitting with to fold?

            PS: This isn't critisism, I just want to make sure I correctly understand you

            Greg

            Comment


            • #7
              Hello, Dave .
              I have one question, Don't you cbet the flop with AA-KK, AK? If he knows that you would cbet flop with this hands , what do you represent OTR with betting ? and how do you think why he checked called OTT? Why He didn't probe it? I see just one reason, he didn't want to get raised and his plan was calling down to showdown. That's why I think he wouldn't fold AJ AQ. Does what I think make sense?

              Comment


              • #8
                You'd think this hand is easy bet.bet.check spot and it's probably something easily overlooked. Interesting!

                Here are my thoughts:
                Preflop: The SB 17/14 seems to have an ABC tight stats. I might give him a little credit for slow playing a hand if the BB showed some squeeze potential or calling a bit lighter to play MW expecting the BB 26/18 to come along. But the fact that they are mass multi-tabling makes me think he might not be taking the BB into consideration?
                I think his range would look like: {JJ-66, AQ/AJ, ATs(50% calls, 50% 3bet) KQ, KJs, QJs, 35% KTs, QTs, JTs (1/3 calls, 1/3 folds, 1/3 3bet)}

                Flop: Their range will consist of 41% TP+, 50% weak pairs, 9% gutshots.
                Against their TP hands we are losing to AQ/AJ and splitting with ATs and since betting the flop will never get called by JJ-66 (which is the largest portion of their range) there is a case to be made to check back the flop. However, I wouldn't expect JJ-66 to call a turn bet after we checked the flop unless they have improved so by cbetting the flop we are picking up the pot 59% of the time and denying them a free card to hit one of their 2outer or with their gutshots. When we do get called OTF, I am checking back turn. I think the flop can go both ways but I feel that cbetting the flop is slightly better than checking back to deny free cards and because I don't expect our check OTF to get them to either bluff enough or x/c with a worse hand OTT.

                Turn: As played, the 4 is insignificant except that it puts two spades on board and now they might call with gutshots+FDs. So clearly we are betting the turn.

                River: I would expect some Kx and Ax to sometimes lead turn but given they x/c turn and did not lead river, I'm thinking there hand would look like JJ(rarely), AJ, ATs, KJs/KTs, QsJs. I think AQ might lead turn to get value from worse Ax hands and KQ might lead rivers with their full house 70% of the time and x/r 30%.
                So by the river they will have 55% TP, 11% trips, 7% Full house, 27% weak pair.
                When we check back the river we will win against 7 combos of weak pairs, split with 14 combos of TP, and lose to 5 combos of trips/fullhouse
                So I like the river bet to target TP hands to fold, but we need to make it big enough to get them to fold their Ax hands. But given we checked back the flop, I think it will be hard for them not to call us with their Ax because I think they could expect us to be betting flop with Kx a big portion of the time for value against Ax.
                Last edited by geoVARTA; Fri Nov 15, 2013, 11:46 AM.

                Comment


                • #9
                  Originally posted by Roland GTX View Post
                  The only hand that seems a concern would be J10 of spades.
                  Not a possible holding when we have the Ts

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Hi Dave [& All], Interesting hand & discussion. With Villain's profile / stats, I think I prefer a bet/bet/check line here & b/f to R... as we would be expected to be value betting our Ax, Kx hands & checking our draws etc... & could take it down OTF. Given post-flop action think we can discount Kx hands, as would expect Villain to lead out OTF or raise OTT a good proportion of the time [... I see no merit in slow playing hands like KQ, KJ etc]. I would be a little concerned that b/draws get their OTR & not sure Villain is folding AJ, AQ hands enough to warrant a value bet OTR, so would check it down. Tony umbup:
                    Last edited by Prodigy237; Fri Nov 15, 2013, 03:50 PM. Reason: Added

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Originally posted by geoVARTA View Post
                      Not a possible holding when we have the Ts
                      That proves my point geo. If he does have that hand, I would be very concerned LOL

                      Thanks for the correction!

                      Greg

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        ...

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Originally posted by Roland GTX View Post
                          That proves my point geo. If he does have that hand, I would be very concerned LOL

                          Thanks for the correction!

                          Greg
                          very concerning indeed

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Originally posted by Roland GTX View Post
                            @John, do you consider 17/14 passive in general, or do you simply mean the line he has taken in this hand? He looks like a careful, low variance multitabler, but I didn't peg him as being passive in general.

                            Aslo, are you betting the river hoping/expecting to get called by worse, or to force hands you are splitting with to fold?

                            PS: This isn't critisism, I just want to make sure I correctly understand you

                            Greg
                            For the villain, the line they're taking in this hand. They are normally TAG (17/14), but they're playing this hand very passively.

                            I'm betting for both of those reasons. To get value from Qx and to try to get hands I chop with to fold... but if they call with Qx, they probably won't fold Ax as they'll be sticky with 2 pair.

                            John (JWK24)
                            Last edited by JWK24; Fri Nov 15, 2013, 05:36 PM.
                            Super-Moderator



                            6 Time Bracelet Winner


                            Comment


                            • #15
                              I think we have three river options and they are along the same lines you are thinking

                              1) check
                              2) bet one fifth-sixth pot
                              3) bet 7 dollars

                              What do you think? I don't mind either 2 or 3. At first glance I didn't mind 1 either.

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