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25NL 6max Zoom: Counterfitted house?

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  • 25NL 6max Zoom: Counterfitted house?

    This hand comes from 25NL 6-Max Zoom. The villain is a reg running 16/11/11.8. We are both deep stacked. I feel like check-folding was my only option on the river. The villain seems to have Qx, 10x, or a pocket pair better than mine. He might have a busted draw with KJ or something I guess. He bet a bit more than half pot, so I need to win at least 25% of the time for calling to be profitable. I didn't think that to be the case, but perhaps I missed something. Any suggestions as to a smart river line here? Thanks! Roland GTX

  • #2
    That river really sucks.

    Like you say, pretty much any holding he could possibly have aside from air or 33 or 22 is beating you.

    I might be more inclined to call with 99+ but with such a crappy pair, I think check-folding is your only option.

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    • #3
      Information is key... Position is power...
      are those stats vpip/pfr/3bet? over the cause of how many hands...
      notes.. does villain not like to fold, is capable of making a move?
      i think i rule out a q here, those stats seem somewhat aggressive but the hand was played pretty passive, it doesnt seem like a value bet at all, and u r more often then not beat here and being only left with a bluff catcher, so calling may be bad and i think your only options here is to fold or the one which i like is to put max pressure back onto the villain with a chunky 3bet, what could they possibly call you with..... it would be a very hard call for them....but u would have to know the opponent to make a better decision. however im still learning so i wouldnt listen to me lol

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      • #4
        Hey Greg, Interesting spot... although think we can discount Qx hands as would expect Villain to R OTT a good percentage of the time & conversely I'm not sure he is value betting OTR with small / mid pps e.g. 55 - 99 [... all of which beat us anyway] for the same reason you didn't... & is more likely to check behind. This leaves us with Tx hands AT, KT, JT poss T9 & pps TT, JJ that may opt to call p/f... & complete bluffs. As played... think your fold is decent & if Villain is capable of bluffing you here, then good for him. Tony umbup:
        Last edited by Prodigy237; Wed Nov 13, 2013, 03:52 PM. Reason: Added

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        • #5
          Hi Greg,

          I think x/f river is the best option here. The only hand they could bluff with is KJ and I think only KJs might call preflop vs UTG open so that leaves us 4 combos . I think the most important information we have on our opponent's hand strength is the action they took OTF, and that is to call a decent sized bet with another player left to act behind them. I think their hand will look like a Qx/Tx, JJ/TT most of the time. So there are more combos we lose to than bluffs in their range.

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