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16nl: Calling down the Triple Barrel

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  • 16nl: Calling down the Triple Barrel

    Stats - VPIP: 22, PFR: 16, 3B: 6, AF: 3, Hands: 202 Villain is a pretty solid reg who i've seen at 16nl and 25nl who plays 6 or so tables. Blind war so likely that people get a bit more aggro. Think the call pre is fine given we are IP and a pretty playable hand. Flop top pair which is always nice so pretty standard call. Turn is a brick. He can barrel this with a few draws like gutshots, open enders, flushdraws, and obviously value hands which beat us. When the K comes OTR (which doesn't really hit his range when he's double barreled) I think we can treat it as a relative brick. Therefore his range is pretty polarized between value hands and bluffs so we can call if has has a large enough % of bluffs. Thoughts? Is my thought process wrong? You guys calling down here?

  • #2
    I agree with your play on all streets.

    If he's taking you to ValueTown, well done to him. But if you're going to call with T9 I think there's not too much that's scary about that board.

    On the river he likely thinks you have the 9 and is hoping to get you off the hand when the "scare" card comes.


    • #3
      Hi birdayy,

      This is a pretty marginal preflop call imo, not sure it's profitable tbh... There's just so many hands in his blind war range that dominate T9. While there are possibly a few that we dominate, I don't think it's enough to compensate. SB steal % isn't given, but if he's way out of line I think our hand plays better restealing, and if he's not grossly out of line I would prefer to just fold this one.

      Flop call is fine if 2/3rds pot is a standard sizing for him. The turn call I'm not so sure about. This is not a good turn barreling card for air, and yet he is barreling, and for an increased sizing of 71% pot. Seems like exactly the kind of action to suck value out of 1 pair hands that are suspicious blind v blind. I think we should be folding on the turn to this action quite often tbh unless there is some history of him routinely double barreling air or overplaying Blind v blind spots.

      This is the kind of spot where I'm looking at their barreling stats... if their f/t/r cbet %'s are 80/50/42, we have a clear and easy fold. If they are 92/88/82, we have much less qualms about calling down.

      Incidentally, it would also be useful to know how thinly he value bets. When you say he's polarized between value hands and bluffs I think what you mean is between monsters and bluffs (I mean obv he is either betting for value or as a bluff if he's a solid reg). I don't agree that his river betting range is necessarily polarized to monsters or bluffs though... for instance if I were the villain, I would be value betting you on the river with 1 pair hands as weak as Q9 here, since the K is largely a blank for your range and I expect to get hero called by 1 pair more often blind v blind.
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