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Flopped set on a monotone board 10NL

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  • Flopped set on a monotone board 10NL

    Hand I played yesterday and had a few mixed opinions on whether my river call is good. The villain in the hand isnt a total unknown, he runs at 25/19 over 36 hands, and has an aggression factor of 1.3. He has yet to 3bet, which isnt particularly relevant to this hand, but it seems to suggest that he is aggressive first in but passive if there is someone in the hand before him. I raise 88 from early position, flop a set on an all heart board, and as is my nature I lead flop, turn and river with the intention to fold should another heart come out and I get raised. On both flop and turn villain simply calls, this seems to fit with his style, turn and river are bricks and do nothing to change the strength of my hand except for an unlikely straight. If I was behind on the flop I still am on the river. Villain shoves river, I do briefly think about folding, but the warning buzzer hasnt sounded by the time I make the decision to call. The way the hand played out, I felt he had a draw which missed, and that he was simply trying to push me out of the pot on the river. I'm behind to a flopped flush, a set of J's and a rivered straight, which although unlikely could also be possible if he held the Ah3x. I have some other relevant information which I didnt know at the time I made the call so I wont add it in until the hand is reviewed. Should we be folding to a guy that appears to be loose passive (though an unreliable sample size) ?
    Last edited by bhoylegend; Tue Oct 15, 2013, 08:03 PM.

  • #2
    Interesting hand bhoylegend!

    I think the answer to the question "Should we be folding to a guy that appears to be loose passive" is Yes.
    I think there are two contradictory statements in your thought process:

    1. Loose passive player
    2. "I felt he had a draw which missed, and that he was simply trying to push me out of the pot on the river"

    Passive players don't do that, imo.

    Villain called two streets on good sized bets and x/r all in OTR. This looks like a really strong line.
    I mean there is always the option that we can check back the river so it's hard for them to plan a bluff when they x/c two streets OOP and x/r river when there is a big chance we can take away that option from them by checking back the river. I honestly can't see too many bluffs with that line. And from the hand that was shown it seems that they have done so without a plan but have abruptly decided to do that OTR without any planning on previous streets.

    But what sort of hands take that line if it's not a bluff?
    I think not too many either: flushes, Ah3 - and we are losing to both, so I think I would have folded to the river shove.

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    • #3
      Thanks for the comments Geo.

      Had I a more reliable sample size on the guy I probably would have thought longer on it and maybe found a fold but I purposely used the word 'appears' to be loose passive because I don't really believe the sample size provides enough confidence in the 'read' to fold my flopped set and that is why I made a quick call in the end.

      As it is, when I looked at previous hands with this villain, despite the stats he has made a similar move already in the few hands we had played together. He shoves draws and missed draws. I didnt have that note on him before but I do now.

      So while his stats give the whiff of being incapable of aggression he has actually displayed it in spades against me directly. Maybe he thinks I am incapable of making big calls.

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      • #4
        Hey bhoylegend! Wow, not sure I've ever seen anybody play quite like the villain here Was wondering if his AF by street shows any indication of his tendency to chase draws to the river, and then bluff - like is his AF low for the flop/turn, but high for the river? If so, was thinking maybe that's a statistic that *might* sometimes be helpful in distinguishing the value bettors from the bluffers? PS Wouldn't be surprised if maybe you remembered the villain's unusual play on some level, although maybe it wasn't consciously - glad the hand worked out for you!! Nice pot!! umbup:
        Last edited by TrustySam; Thu Oct 17, 2013, 06:13 AM.

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        • #5
          Originally posted by TrustySam View Post
          Hey bhoylegend! Wow, not sure I've ever seen anybody play quite like the villain here Was wondering if his AF by street shows any indication of his tendency to chase draws to the river, and then bluff - like is his AF low for the flop/turn, but high for the river? If so, was thinking maybe that's a statistic that *might* sometimes be helpful in distinguishing the value bettors from the bluffers? PS Wouldn't be surprised if maybe you remembered the villain's unusual play on some level, although maybe it wasn't consciously - glad the hand worked out for you!! Nice pot!! umbup:
          He's raised only twice on the river, both times against me, and both times I have won a stack off him. The first time he wasn't full stacked but this time he was. As for remembering him on some level. I think that is more than possible because I just didn't feel that I could fold to his shove without a deadly certain read that he had to be strong. I think he is maybe new to the 10nl player pool and just trying to be aggressive for the sake of bring aggressive. I don't particularly want to have a total reliance on HUD stats though, referring to it for every decision, though if I HUD a few hundred hands on this guy I may have folded.

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          • #6
            Without history bet/folding the river should be your default play.

            Vs most opponents you won't show a profit calling a river shove.

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            • #7
              Jesus, if the only people I can call are certified maniacs or known bluffers how am I ever supposed to make money, I don't table select so the majority of people are unknown.

              If I fold to every random who takes the head staggers then I am pretty sure that I won't show a profit there either.

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              • #8
                Double post

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                • #9
                  Originally posted by bhoylegend View Post
                  Jesus, if the only people I can call are certified maniacs or known bluffers how am I ever supposed to make money, I don't table select so the majority of people are unknown.

                  If I fold to every random who takes the head staggers then I am pretty sure that I won't show a profit there either.
                  You say this like you're getting check/raise jammed on the river every other hand you play. I would expect this type of sequence is pretty rare in your games tbh, and most of the time non-maniacs/known bluffers have a big hand when they do it.

                  Maybe a little stat tracker exploration would be beneficial. Try filtering for all times you raised preflop then bet 3 streets, to get a # of hands this has occurred. Then add a filter for an opponent check-raising you on the river. This will enable you to see how often this action sequence is actually occurring (my guess is it's rare). You will also then be able to look at the hands that were shown down and get a sense of what type of hand strength the check/raiser shows up with in general.

                  The bottom line is, if we are getting check/raised jammed on the river only very rarely anyway, and non-LAG villains usually have monsters when they do it, then yes you could still make a profit not calling these bets from non-LAGs. In fact, you'd likely be making more profit than you do now. And if you find in the sojourn through your stat tracker that they're usually bluffing in this spot, then you've learned something valuable as well, and can start making these calls lighter than you might normally.
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                  • #10
                    Edit: If the sample size on those filters is just too small, then expand the sampling by removing the barrel 3 streets stuff and just make it you bet on the river and got c/r. Or, to expand further still, just filter for anyone other than you check/raises on the river so you'll get hands you weren't even contesting the pot in the mix... you can get a visualization of the general ranges for this action by looking over this. My expectation is that you'll find some bluffs, some made non-monster hands by players who have stats that make them seen somewhat clueless, and quite a bit of nuttish hands and monsters. This examination may also give some future intuitive feel for what player types show up with what in this spot.
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                    • #11
                      I wasn't talking about just that exact hand scenario with that statement.

                      I'm just trying to emphasise the fact that in the sample size I have at this game type that there are a tonne of players who make random moves with a lot less than the nuts. That can be on the flop, turn or river. So I am certainly not saying that this happens all the time on the river. What I am saying is that if I fold every time someone that I have no solid read on, and they have shoved, then I will be losing quite a bit of money across all those instances because it happens fairly often. Sometimes I have a marginal hand and will fold, no problem with that, sometimes I will have a strong hand and will fold, can handle that too.

                      Maybe it's the fever speaking but I liked and still like my call in this hand. I note that as with another hand it is getting no love at all and I agree totally agree with the analysis of the KJs hand.

                      I just didn't believe this shove was with the nuts

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                      • #12
                        Sure, there's a % of random nonsense moves going on, fair enough. Bad players do things that make no sense all the time. But I don't think the % of random nonsense moves are uniform across all streets. It's probably higher on the turn than river, and higher still on the flop. And in addition to it being at the lowest frequency on the river, it's probably lower still when their opponent has shown a ton of strength with their line in the hand.

                        I haven't seen anyone say you should always fold when an unknown moves in on you and you don't have the nuts, so I'm a bit lost on where that's coming from. Although the assertion brings up another potential sojourn. Filter for times someone shoves on you for a non-nominal amount and you call without the nuts, and see how you're doing, what types of hand strengths they show up with when shoving the flop, turn, or river, etc.
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                        • #13
                          I would fold the river but i can see your point though these players normally donk monsters on the river so it could be a bluff but i still think if you fold its gonna be easier to make that small loss on the turn and flop back than your whole stack you could lose by the river.

                          I just had a hand where a fish min raised top pair weak kicker in a 3 way pot on J Th 2h and i call with KK turn was a J im IP btw and they check and i check, i could bet but i was sure the flop raiser had a J and didn't want to get raised river was a heart and they check, i was sure the one guy who was calling from the flop was drawing to a flush so my read was bang on with him but i expected him to donk out seen as the turn checked through the flop raiser never bet so i decided the caller could have Tx and the flop raiser was doing some fancy business by checking his stats it seemed likely.

                          So i bet 1/4 pot to get called by Tx and the flop raiser had JK and the guy whos was calling had a rivered nut flush and never even re raised the river. Some might say my value bet was to thin, maybe it was my 1st read was right but because they dont play the way you expect them to play with certain hands you end up making bad decisions here and there costing you more money, which is why im making lay downs like this now because all of there plays make no sense what so ever they are just clicking buttons.

                          I could of got it all in on the flop good but i wasn't sure if that was the correct play multiway so i just called.

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                          • #14
                            I will do the homework but it will have to wait until the weekend as HEM slows my computer to a snails pace the majority of the time and I will be pretty much grinding the SnG circuit tomorrow. I probably need an SSD to be honest.

                            FWIW though, I'm not unaware that river shoves are much stronger that turn shoves, turn shoves are stronger than flop shoves in most cases, so the fact that river shoves are usually the nuts wont be a shock when I see it.

                            I've been running amazingly well recently, too well, and it cant last forever, so it probably makes a great deal of sense to bring my cash game to a halt for the rest of the month and focus on other things including poker variants aside from cash. I will also use it to study my big hands recently because I get the impression that I am getting lucky more than playing well at the minute.

                            I also gather that I am not articulating what I mean very well in previous posts. I think there are probably reasons for that.

                            All I can say is that I really never thought I was behind on the river, whether it was inspirational genius or pure dumb luck, at this minute in time I no longer care. I'm just delighted that I won that hand and the other big hands I have been involved in, apart from the ones I lost of course, so I will take my medicine and try and learn from it.

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                            • #15
                              Originally posted by bhoylegend View Post
                              I'm just trying to emphasise the fact that in the sample size I have at this game type that there are a tonne of players who make random moves with a lot less than the nuts. That can be on the flop, turn or river. So I am certainly not saying that this happens all the time on the river. What I am saying is that if I fold every time someone that I have no solid read on, and they have shoved, then I will be losing quite a bit of money across all those instances because it happens fairly often. Sometimes I have a marginal hand and will fold, no problem with that, sometimes I will have a strong hand and will fold, can handle that too.
                              Hey bhoylegend I could totally see how you might have remembered this villain as being a repeat shover, and maybe that's why you called. For other spots where you might not have as clear a read on the villain, there were a couple of great discussions from HA and Live Training that brought up some other stuff we can consider when making a decision to bluff-catch that I found to be really helpful: 1. There was this really great discussion in HA where Dave, Gareth and Arty pointed out that what made calling this re-raise a solid move was the low stack-to-pot ratio, which gave Forrest a great price to call - Mike touched on that above: Factor 1: Low SPR, Great Price to Call 2. And there was this hand from Live Training where it was the opposite situation, and despite being given a good price to call, it made more sense to fold for several reasons - most notably the one Dave and Geo gave above ... that 3 streets of big bets shows great strength: Value In All the Right Places, @10:30 Also: River Decisions - Hand 2 @31:00, where villain's re-raise was odd because the board was really dry Have a couple of other hands too, but my notes have gotten so big, I'm having trouble locating everything at the moment Hope you find these as interesting as I did umbup:
                              Last edited by TrustySam; Fri Oct 18, 2013, 03:21 AM.

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