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5 NL 6max Zoom - Did I overplay my OP

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  • 5 NL 6max Zoom - Did I overplay my OP

    Villain SB: 114 hands, 17/15/3 tag regular, WWSF:8/11, WTSD:1/11, AF:inf

    Did I overplay my OP? Turn and river.

    Turn: Bet small to get value from Kx hands. Villain raises. Baluka theorem suggest I should fold. Most obvious hand he could have is TJ, but then he would have called with gut draw, also it seems he is hugely aggressive, so well, I called. Also, too hard to give up OP. He should have now set, right?

    River: He checks, after long though I thin valued against Kx, because he would have bet str and set (now full). He would have hard time to call Kx though, so maybe too thin.

    PokerStars Zoom No-Limit Hold'em, $0.05 BB (6 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from http://flopturnriver.com/

    Button ($0.49)
    SB ($5.19)
    BB ($5.63)
    Hero (UTG) ($13.17)
    MP ($3.32)
    CO ($3.84)

    Preflop: Hero is UTG with A, A
    Hero raises to $0.15, 2 folds, Button calls $0.15, SB calls $0.13, 1 fold

    Flop: ($0.50) K, 7, 8 (3 players)
    SB checks, Hero bets $0.32, Button calls $0.32, SB calls $0.32

    Turn: ($1.46) 9 (3 players)
    SB checks, Hero bets $0.74, Button calls $0.02 (All-In), SB raises to $2.02, Hero calls $1.28

    River: ($5.52) 7 (3 players, 1 all-in)
    SB checks, Hero bets $2.72
    Last edited by braveslice; Sun Oct 13, 2013, 10:42 PM.

  • #2
    Hi Brave,

    It does seem a bit thin tbh. Although the read is fairly limited, it seems clear enough that when he gets involved he wins most of his hands by aggression (AF infinite, Won when seeing flop 8/11 flops, but only going to showdown 1 of those times).

    So this leads me to ask, with what range would such an opponent check and call the flop? It's probably best to identify this since the action seems out of character for him thus far.

    I would guess he would not slow play monsters like a set on this flop texture. I would also guess that this guy semi-bluffs his draws (probably pretty hard). So that leaves us with good but not great showdown value hands. Hands that fall into this category on the flop which are worthy of a turn check/raise for value are K9, 89s, 99. Also in the vein of aggressively semi-bluffing, KT would fit the bill.


    I'd rule out 99 when he checks the river. We beat K9, KT, and 98. I'd think he's never calling an all in river bet with 98 here. So the question becomes will he call it with K9 and KT? My best guess is KT probably not (he has to be concerned with AK when we don't fold to the checkraise)... and with K9, maybe sometimes yes because he still beats AK with a better 2 pair. There are more combos of KT than K9 however, and there's always some % chance he's got a stronger hand that he didn't play according to expectation. So while I do tend to make thin value bets myself (and tbh I would probably make one here myself in the heat of battle if I were multi-tabling), after breaking the hand down it may be too thin.
    Last edited by TheLangolier; Mon Oct 14, 2013, 11:37 PM. Reason: typo-city
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    • #3
      Oh my KT fits the bill, so easy. I didn't get that. He folded. TY!
      Last edited by braveslice; Mon Oct 14, 2013, 11:59 PM.

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