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25nl Zoom AA

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  • 25nl Zoom AA

    Hi,

    This guy has some wear stats he seems tight, but he opens pretty wide from EP.

    vs 18/16/4,1AF 39%F3B RFI EP 20%, from EP he folds to 3b 25% 888 hands.

    PokerStars Zoom No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (6 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from http://www.flopturnriver.com

    Button ($41.86)
    SB ($48.02)
    BB ($26.96)
    UTG ($25)
    MP ($30.08)
    Hero (CO) ($25)

    Preflop: Hero is CO with A, A
    UTG raises to $0.62, 1 fold, Hero raises to $1.90, 3 folds, UTG calls $1.28

    Flop: ($4.15) 8, K, 3 (2 players)
    UTG checks, Hero bets $2.20, UTG raises to $5, Hero calls $2.80

    Turn: ($14.15) 10 (2 players)
    UTG bets $8, Hero...

    So i was kind of lost on this hand, because he seemed like a reg but then he flats a 3b OOP on EP which for a reg normally means JJ QQ AK, of those only AK plays the flop like that if he is really bad and i block 2 A's . I noticed he had low F3B so i thought he might be calling 3b with all pp.

    Unfortunately i didn't notice he is opening 20% from EP, wich means he can also have some suited broadways and i don't have the Ad, but i dont know if he min CR with his flush draws.

    The turn i feel is where i have to make my decision, because if i call i would never fold to a $10 bet on a $30 pot on the river. What do you do?

  • #2
    It's an easy shove in my opinion.
    Yeah, he might end up with a set, or calling the 3bet with his K8s, KTs and be doing this for value, but we are ahead of a lot of Kx, 8xdd and flush draws that I see no real reason to not shove.
    Also, if he was bluffing on that flop, he would probably continue firing on that turn.
    All things considered I shove turn without much thinking.

    Comment


    • #3
      We might even consider just calling turn sometimes on a dry board to keep his bluffs on his range, but on such a drawy board, I am not sure about it.
      Last edited by GamblingProp; Sat Oct 12, 2013, 11:24 PM.

      Comment


      • #4
        What about his check raise or raise cbet stats OTF? sometimes min raise means much more strength. I don't see K8 in his hand range and don't think he would check raise with KT OTF. and I think main decision we have to make OTF .

        Comment


        • #5
          Well on 3bet pots vs Cbet he has check-raise once on 6 opportunities (not counting this hand)he has fold the rest.

          Comment


          • #6
            Originally posted by CaRLoS_DZ87 View Post
            Well on 3bet pots vs Cbet he has check-raise once on 6 opportunities (not counting this hand)he has fold the rest.
            I think there is very small part of semi bluffs. Very often with a K on the board after x/r I see sets , I think fold is better decision.

            Comment


            • #7
              lol what is he repping?

              KK would 4b pre. He is literally repping 2 hands (88 or 33) if he flats 3bs OOP with PPs. He might have AK (played terrible if he does) or Kx, which we are crushing.

              At 10nl or 5nl vs a nit reg you could consider folding AA here, but at the aggression level of 25nl, we should be reshoving the flop.

              Comment


              • #8
                Originally posted by birdayy View Post
                lol what is he repping?

                KK would 4b pre. He is literally repping 2 hands (88 or 33) if he flats 3bs OOP with PPs. He might have AK (played terrible if he does) or Kx, which we are crushing.

                At 10nl or 5nl vs a nit reg you could consider folding AA here, but at the aggression level of 25nl, we should be reshoving the flop.
                Just thought about KK, you didn't give his 4bet stats, maybe he plays kings that way. And birdayy he isn't aggressive .
                Last edited by Shichi-77; Sun Oct 13, 2013, 02:13 PM.

                Comment


                • #9
                  Ooh - tough spot

                  Have been encountering a lot of tough spots this morning myself, so ... will take a break and look over your tough spot for a bit instead of more of my own


                  So hard to read anything into the villain's bet sizing on the turn, since he doesn't need to raise a lot to get all the money into the middle by the river - like, if he's got suited broadways in his range, then might he be double-barreling with those? Or might he be trying to get stacks in by the river with a set, since all the pocket pairs might be in his range too? Or could he be doing this with AK? Or even the other AA?

                  Sometimes in spots like these I think HUD stats can make a difference. There's a handful of profitable regs at 10nl who have much wider ranges pre-flop, and they all tighten up considerably by the turn and river. So the stats for them I like to look at are their turn c-bet, and wtsd/w$sd? It'd be awfully spewy to check-raise and double-barrel in a 3-bet pot with just a flush draw, so like ... if the villain here routinely plays like that oop, then over 888 hands it would seem like that sort of play ought to be showing up in their results?

                  Although, if they really nit up on later streets, then ... I still wouldn't be sure what to do


                  Tricky spot
                  Last edited by TrustySam; Sun Oct 13, 2013, 04:28 PM.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    He has 8,7% 4bet, non has been from EP, so maybe KK some of the time.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      If he's still playing 25nl after 888 hands, I'd have to assume his wtsd/w$sd are fairly normal?


                      And maybe he could be playing AdQd this way?

                      So, maybe his value range might be AdQd (1 combo), AA (1 combo), 88(3 combos)?
                      Possibly KK(3 combos), 33(3 combos), AdJd(1 combo), QdJd(1 combo), JdTd(1 combo)??


                      Gosh, I don't know ... maybe based on the combos alone, a fold on the turn wouldn't be so bad since you'd have only invested like 1/4 of your stack by that point?

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        what about his avg. all-in equity? nits are read that way too. The thing is you don't have so mich time to think there

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          This is not so obvious a spot. It is true what Carlos says, that villain can have all pocket pairs because of the combination of his UTG raise and his fold to three-bet, when put in context of the preflop sizes.

                          But then he can also have a few more flush draws as a result, and might overplay AK.

                          Does someone want to do some pokerstoving?

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            I just want to know. how do you think would some one with such stats overplay TPTK and semi bluff draws. If he would, that's easy shove OTT.

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Made some pokerstoving from what IMO his range on that turn could be:

                              Board: Kd 3d 8c Th

                              KK,88,33,QdJd,AKo 62.696%
                              AA 37.304%

                              I didn't take into account villain's semibluffs but JdQd, which I think will surely bet turn.
                              And we aren't doing that bad equity wise.

                              Comment

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