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5nl - tpgk oop

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  • 5nl - tpgk oop

    Villain is unknown. Is there an argument to bluff catch without reads? Looking to it now, i think i would like to call this since spades didn't hit and i don't think the back door flush/straight hits him. I don't see him value betting KQ, and AK probably would 3bet pre. A set or two pair would raise the turn, i think.

  • #2
    Hi MrFlopes,

    I actually think we should be betting again on this river. We are losing to KQ and freak 2 pairs, and even readless would presume he 3-bets AK preflop (so not having that much here) or raises sets on the flop or turn (so not having those much either). So the river play for me is bet/fold. Bet to get value from the worse K's in his range, and also spade draws that made a pair like Ts9s or As6s... all these hands are candidates to check down and showdown when we check the river, costing us value. If we get raised all in, we are often looking at K9, Ts8s, 99, 97s, and can just fold.

    As played, I would call, although I'm not happy about this sizing. If he made one of the better hands then good on him. There's enough chance he's bluffing a busted spade draw or betting a weak K or worse pair for some illogical reason. I would have bet/folded about $1.25-$1.50 so the call isn't costing me much more than this anyway, and snaps any bluffs he might make here.
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    • #3
      Bet/folding the river gives us better information to work off as to what range he has.

      When we check, we are playing the guessing game as to whether he is bluffing or has us beat.

      If we do check, we should be check/calling, but as mentioned I prefer bet/folding.
      Last edited by birdayy; Wed Oct 09, 2013, 06:32 PM.

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      • #4
        At 2Nl i could bet this. At 5/10 NL great majority of the time i can't get called by a worst hand. In Gareth's class he often plans for these hands (top pair good kicker) two streets of value, sometimes with a bet-check-bet line, in dry boards and with position. With position i wouldn't bet river, i think.

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        • #5
          Gareth is typically playing higher stakes where that's more true. 5NL is infinitely closer to 2NL than it is to 50NL in terms of opponent skill levels. The most common mistakes random micro players make are calling mistakes. I think we will definitely get called by worse hands if we bet the river here. BalugaWhale once said if you want to increase your win rate, increase your river value betting frequency. This is the type of spot he was talking about imo.
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