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25NL - River Bluff catch vs triple barells?

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  • 25NL - River Bluff catch vs triple barells?

    Hello PSO-ers, This is a ZOOM hand where a LAG playing 40/31(68 Hands) min opens the BTN and we defend our SB with 88 and a Tight opponent 16/13 (168 Hands) 4% 3bet, 0% squeeze in BB. So I'm not really worried about them behind us and they fold as I expected. Villains average steal is 71% over 17 hands and their fold to 3bet is 57% in 7 attempts but 7.7 4bet range in 6 hands. Flop Agg: 4.0(11) - Turn Agg: 5.0(8) - River Agg: 1.0(5) With their 67% cbet, I decide to x/c flop and maybe some turns that they might 2barell on. The turn I think is a good card for them to bet with a hand like 97, 98, KQ, AQ, AK, etc. where they pick up some equity and added fold equity against my Tx or PPs. But now they put out a 65% PSB OTR and I have a decision to make. Obviously against their made hands our hand is no good, but the question is would they triple barrel bluff this river card? I think some made hands could check back if not the turn for pot control but the river with SD value and his bet sizing does not look like thin value to me but either an outright bluff or a strong Jx+ hand. From the way I played my hand by x/c two streets it might be reasonable to assume that they are trying to get us to fold a Tx, 99/88/77? Looking at the river agg stat does not help us in that direction. Yet sample size is insignificant. What would you do OTR? and would you have played the hand any differently OTF & OTT? Give me thoughts....

  • #2
    I think it's more of a 3-bet preflop, since we crush his range and I see no reason to slowplay it pre.
    Flop is standard, but on the turn a call could put us on a tough spot on almost any river.
    I feel that as played, calling all the way could be justified and +EV vs some aggro opponents, but I would prefer the low variance play and just fold turn.

    Comment


    • #3
      I find kind of suspicious that someone who opens BTN 2 x, would cbet that big flop as well on turn and river as bluff. I'm probably giving up turn, for sure river. Turn cbet% would be interesting. Also seems like his river aggression drops in comparison with flop and turn, seems like the kind of player to give up river?
      Last edited by CaRLoS_DZ87; Wed Oct 09, 2013, 05:26 PM.

      Comment


      • #4
        Flop call is super standard.

        I'm conflicted OTT.

        Good regs will be barreling an overcard OTT, so I feel folding the turn is a bit weak given he opened OTB.

        However, calling the turn to fold a brick river seems quite exploitable.

        Given this, I think we should be making our decision OTT.

        Comment


        • #5
          Personally I think it was played very nitty

          If I was on button, I would firstly assume you just joined since you have a starting stack. I min raise and all you do is call.......mhhhh looks like a beginner to me, so I'll be betting all the way. Numbers are not the only aspect of the game, perception also is.

          So with 88, I would 3Bet the flop to $2.00, if he 4Bets than I fold (losing $2.00). If he folds, well at least I made $0.75 instead of loosing $4.75 the way you played it.

          On the flop, you check, ok, but on his min bet, I would raise to $3.00. Fold to a re-raise and if he calls, I'm check/folding the turn/river

          As I can see from your post, you were number driven, the numbers dictated your play. Pre flop, the only cards that have you beaten are 99+, only 6 combination, so why just check the flop? On the flop, add 33, 66 and JT, QT, KT and AT, that's 12 combinations, so why just call the flop? Every time you just call, you're giving an extra card to the players. I don't think 88 merits a call, it's raise or fold.

          Just my 2 cents

          Comment


          • #6
            Hiya trap
            Thanks for dropping by...


            my in-line comments below.
            Originally posted by Sandtrap777 View Post
            Personally I think it was played very nitty you mean passively?

            If I was on button, I would firstly assume you just joined since you have a starting stack.
            It's zoom; and I auto top up
            I min raise and all you do is call.......mhhhh looks like a beginner to me, so I'll be betting all the way.
            A BTN min open is not necessarily a beginner; its a way to be able to open more pots from that position without risking too much and having to fold 3bbs when they get 3bet with their junk. I think with 88 is a good hand to call because it's not a value hand (which means I don't plan to go all in with it if we get 4bt) and at the same time too strong to fold.
            Numbers are not the only aspect of the game, perception also is.

            So with 88, I would 3Bet the flop to $2.00 , if he 4Bets than I fold (losing $2.00). If he folds, well at least I made $0.75 instead of loosing $4.75 the way you played it.

            On the flop, you check, ok, but on his min bet, I would raise to $3.00. Fold to a re-raise and if he calls, I'm check/folding the turn/river So we are somehow turning our hand into a bluff here because I'm not sure I see better hands folding or worse hands calling

            As I can see from your post, you were number driven, the numbers dictated your play. Pre flop, the only cards that have you beaten are 99+, only 6 combination 99+ are actually 36 combos not 6, so why just check the flop? On the flop, add 33, 66 and JT, QT, KT and AT, that's 12 combinations, so why just call the flop?what worse hands call? Every time you just call, you're giving an extra card to the players. I don't think 88 merits a call, it's raise or fold.

            Just my 2 cents
            Last edited by geoVARTA; Wed Oct 09, 2013, 08:21 PM.

            Comment


            • #7
              I think the river card is a bad card to bluff but i was just wondering seen as Sandtrap said raise the flop because we can be ahead here alot i think but if we have TPTK on the flop should we ever raise for value there or just call down im forever calling down with TPTK when im OOP and it feels so weak and it just lets them outdraw you.

              Comment


              • #8
                Originally posted by mike2198 View Post
                I think the river card is a bad card to bluff but i was just wondering seen as Sandtrap said raise the flop because we can be ahead here alot i think but if we have TPTK on the flop should we ever raise for value there or just call down im forever calling down with TPTK when im OOP and it feels so weak and it just lets them outdraw you.
                I think with TPTK there is less chance to get outdrawn because we would have an Ace to go with our TP

                Comment


                • #9
                  Originally posted by geoVARTA View Post
                  Hiya trap
                  Thanks for dropping by...


                  my in-line comments below.
                  Originally posted by Sandtrap777 View Post
                  Personally I think it was played very nitty you mean passively? Sorry, for better words , yes

                  If I was on button, I would firstly assume you just joined since you have a starting stack. It's zoom; and I auto top up I know, it's the perception you give
                  I min raise and all you do is call.......mhhhh looks like a beginner to me, so I'll be betting all the way. A BTN min open is not necessarily a beginner; its a way to be able to open more pots from that position without risking too much and having to fold 3bbs when they get 3bet with their junk. I think with 88 is a good hand to call because it's not a value hand (which means I don't plan to go all in with it if we get 4bt) and at the same time too strong to fold. Wasn't talking about the button, I was placing myself in his shoes and analyzing your call

                  So with 88, I would 3Bet the flop to $2.00, if he 4Bets than I fold (losing $2.00). If he folds, well at least I made $0.75 instead of loosing $4.75 the way you played it.

                  On the flop, you check, ok, but on his min bet, I would raise to $3.00. Fold to a re-raise and if he calls, I'm check/folding the turn/river. So we are somehow turning our hand into a bluff here because I'm not sure I see better hands folding or worse hands calling. Not necessarily, because the way you played it, you kind of told the Button, "I don't have much, so I'm just calling to see another card", so he could be bluffing you with 27o

                  As I can see from your post, you were number driven, the numbers dictated your play. Pre flop, the only cards that have you beaten are 99+, only 6 combination, 99+ are actually 36 combos not 6, SORRY you're right on that, I should of said combination type so why just check the flop? On the flop, add 33, 66 and JT, QT, KT and AT, that's 12 combinations, so why just call the flop? what worse hands call? AK, AQ or any 2 cards to scare you and make you fold Every time you just call, you're giving an extra card to the players. I don't think 88 merits a call, it's raise or fold.

                  Just my 2 cents
                  Put yourself in his shoes
                  - How do you perceive the SB just calling your min raise? he's got nothing and just wants to see the flop
                  - SB checks the flop? He still has nothing
                  - SB calls my min bet? Still wants to see another card
                  - SB checks turn? Still has nothing
                  - SB calls my min bet again? He wants to see another card, If he had anything he would raise. All I got to do, is make a big bet on the river and I'm sure he'll fold

                  Personally, I think you had good cards to re-raise and re-evaluate your next move. Also, if I was in profit in my session, no question, I'm re-raising the pre flop, the post flop and maybe the turn
                  Last edited by Sandtrap777; Wed Oct 09, 2013, 08:57 PM.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    I fold the turn. You don't consider 3bet pre flop? Some players like frosty say they don't have a calling range on the SB anymore.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      I don't get what min bet are we talking about on the flop? 1 into a 1.25 seems like a pretty big cbet. Could be just a standard cbet for him, could be a tell.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Originally posted by geoVARTA View Post
                        I think with TPTK there is less chance to get outdrawn because we would have an Ace to go with our TP
                        So its fine to call 3 barrels with TPTK when we have are sure were ahead of course ive not called 3 barrels and lost yet with TPTK that is.

                        So if we ever raise TPTK why would we do it? To try and make an aggro player think were bluffing on very dry flops that if raised are always gonna be a bluff from a good players view like on a flop of A99 it would be pretty silly to raise a lag there with 98 unless you think he will put you on a bluff and just put you in i seen this play alot at some higher stakes vids i watched. But they are raising TPTK in alot of other spots as well with no reason as to why there doing it.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Originally posted by CaRLoS_DZ87 View Post
                          I don't get what min bet are we talking about on the flop? 1 into a 1.25 seems like a pretty big cbet. Could be just a standard cbet for him, could be a tell.
                          By min bet, for me, is $0.50 pre flop and $1 post flop at 25NL
                          If I have a stack of $30, what's a .50 or $1 call.... peanuts
                          But if you bet 3x or even 3.5x, than it looks big.

                          If only I could remember the tittle of a book which really helped me. It said something like, "If you think you have good cards, you bet or you fold, you DON'T CALL"

                          That's what I do, I bet or re-raise or fold and then re-evaluate if I continue or I fold. (I do sometimes call....lol, but lots depends on my notes)

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            There are no min bets in this hand. I think you are overplaying your 88 hand and maybe that book you read is out of date. You can't just bet or fold. There are hands that have showdown value that you must only call.

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Originally posted by geoVARTA View Post
                              Flop Agg: 4.0(11) - Turn Agg: 5.0(8) - River Agg: 1.0(5)
                              Even though it's a small sample his stats here suggests that he likes to continue his aggression on the flop and turn and then give up on the river.

                              Based on these alone I don't mind calling the flop and the turn but am folding to his river bet and waiting for a better spot.

                              Personally I would have 3-bet pre-flop but as played I prefer folding the river.

                              Comment

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