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25nl Zoom: Check/calling OTR

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  • 25nl Zoom: Check/calling OTR

    Stats - VPIP: 54, PFR: 31, 3B: 0, AF: 1.5, Hands: 13 Just a quick check on my line here. I think bet/bet/bet is a little bit optimistic for top pair ok kicker. I think he'll have a lot of missed draws when the board pairs, so if we want to get value, we should be check/calling to let our hand be a bluff catcher. Do you think this extracts more value than b/b/b? What range do you assign the villain when he flats pre and calls our bets? -birdayy

  • #2
    not 86 for sure , I think you can't get value with river bet, but you can catch his missed draws

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    • #3
      Hi birdayy,

      Very limited read with only 13 hands, but thus far he's been laggy. A note for those looking at the AF and saying it doesn't look aggressive post flop... I wouldn't make that determination on a 7 hand sample (he's voluntarily played 7/13 hands so far) where he's likely been involved with wide ranges and thus flopping weaker than average holdings.

      Ok, so yeah, I like this line when there are a lot of draws and most of them miss vs. a player like this. Against a tighter player there's really only a flush draw bricking here, but against this villain I expect he's chasing gut shots on the turn as well, so the only combo of gutters that get there is 67... 68/78/JT/QT/QJ all miss. So his range here is probably mostly weaker hands... Kx, 9x, busted spades, and busted gutters that either did or did not pair the 8. Since a laggy player may well bet Kx themselves when checked to, we still get value from his garbage like K3s check/calling, but also give him a chance to bluff.

      The key questions to ask in a spot like this are:

      -Will they bluff a busted draw, or just give up?
      -Will they "value bet" worse made hands, or just check and show them down?

      Since this guy is probably a candidate to do some of both, c/c is a good way to exploit it. If he were a negative on both, we should bet again.
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