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5NL Zoom (6max), facing turn all in bet

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  • 5NL Zoom (6max), facing turn all in bet

    Hey guys, it's me rofl again CO VPIP 18:15 AG 1.1 3bet 4.9 only got 150 hands there. My stat overall 22:18:2.9:8 but about 24:20:4:10 since last week so I have no idea what he has on me. Pre-flop Would have folded pre-flop if BB didn't call, but he did so I called and will give up if don't have at least 2 pair with some kinda draws on the flop. Flop The flop was very good, got the 2 pair so I fire the 1st barrel and he called. Turn Turn gave me the gutshot so I fired the 2nd barrel and also for value against his over pairs ( I put him on either 2 big over cards or most likely with over-pairs after his pre-flop 3bet) He pushed all-in.... During that moment I put him on over-pairs with 99+ so I..... fold..... really don't know why I folded there, just have a very strong feeling that he has got the 99 and couldn't think properly. I really don't think that's the right play? please help
    Last edited by hahaharofl; Sun Oct 06, 2013, 07:19 PM.

  • #2
    I'd say he has an 8 90% of the time.

    Bet/folding the turn seems fine. You could also check/call and check/fold the river but we are playing the guessing game more often.

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    • #3
      88 isnt even in his 3betting range this guy is probably scared of the board and is looking for the easy way out and shoves it all in with an over pair i cant see opening 67s being profitable EP though. Then agin he could have A8s.
      Last edited by mike2198; Sun Oct 06, 2013, 06:41 PM.

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      • #4
        3bet of 4.9 doesn't sound like 88 or A8 to me, or any small pp that made a set there.
        It's an overpair most of the time imo, maybe he did't want to raise otf to let the second guy in.

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        • #5
          I agree with Mike and Praydk. The first time I glanced at this, I thought "Looks like a scared overpair to me". In a single-raised pot, villain would have an 8 almost always when he raises the turn, but in this pot he 3-bet your MP open. Even if you ignore the TAG/reg HUD stats, there aren't many players 3-betting with an 8 in their hand. 99 is just about possible (although I would nearly always just flat with nines pre-flop in that spot) but TT+ is much more likely, especially combinatorically. There are only 3 combos that make a set of 9s, but there are six combos of each overpair, to make 30 in total. If we assign him a range of AA-88, then you're beating 30 combos, and only losing to 9. In short, you usually have the best hand on the turn.
          Middle two pair is vulnerable to counterfeits (JJ+ has eight outs to a better two pair or a set, and TT has 4 gutshot outs on top of that) but I think you're beating so much of his range that you have to call it off.

          If you stove the equity vs 88+, you've got about 61% on the turn. Occasionally, villain might even be spazzing with two overs and a flush draw, which means you're in even better shape.

          Hope this helps!
          Cheers,
          Arty
          Bracelet Winner

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          • #6
            Thanks all for the replay

            Yeah coz he 3-bet pre-flop that's why I think he either have over-pairs or AKs FD. Guess too many bad beats in a row does make me tilt

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