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NL5: AKs, flopped TPTK, tough turn spot

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  • NL5: AKs, flopped TPTK, tough turn spot

    Hey guys, only got about 450 hands on him so the stat may not be very accurate VPIP 16 PFR 14 AG 2 3B 4.6 F3B 20 4BR 4.1 and also a very interesting CB/FCB 70:100 the flop is not too wet with just a flush draw so I bet with my TPTK and he called, which makes me think he either has a nine (A9s still possible even after my 3bet since he only folds 20% of his PFR. Don't really think it can be AQs coz he would prob 4bet me here) or a flush draw ( for some reason I just feel he is on the flush draw ) and of coz some weaker Aces. The turn completes the flush, I don't really wanna check here as I would have no idea he has an ace or actually have made the flush. So I bet again and hoping he would fold his small Aces. He end up re-raising so I folded. Just wondering is this the right play? Coz I lost a lot recently so I am not sure if I am just too conservative or something is really wrong with my game. Please help umbup:
    Last edited by hahaharofl; Sat Oct 05, 2013, 08:34 AM.

  • #2
    It looks ok. If we call turn we have to call any non-heart river, so our decision should be made OTT. If you feel like never do this with < AK then we can fold, and given his stats and the baluga theoreom i'd be bet/folding like you did.

    Have you considered not 3betting pre? I know it seems 'standard' to 3b AK vs every position, but i've recently started flatting with it vs utg opens. Check out this video: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EqDhORV_dPs

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    • #3
      Wow very interesting video !!! Need time to think about it,

      But thanks a lot!!! very good video there !!!

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      • #4
        Hi rofl,

        Calling with AK vs UTG is a good idea too against a TAG who we know will not be opening continuing with a wide range against a 3bet. 16/14 is pretty tight. I don't expect them to be opening from UTG with more than 11% of hands. So I would have preferred calling with AK as birdayy points out.

        His calling range would be something like: { AK, QQ, JJ } mostly and sometimes KK and slow played AA. Occasionally AQs and KQs, rarely TT/99

        Given the Ah is on board I think that decreases the chance that they would have a flush; there is only 1 combo of a FD with KhQh assuming our hand range is correct.

        OTF, they would have TP+ approximately 30% of the time, 64% PP below TP (KK-TT)
        I think when we bet here we will get called at least once by KK/QQ, JJ/TT might fold. But when we bet the turn KK/QQ should be folding or atleast calling one more if they had a heart to go with it.

        The hands that would raise the turn are KhQh, AK (specifically with the Kh), AA, 99. Against that range we have 17% so folding should be the right play.

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        • #5
          Thx you both !!!!! especially the point that I should just called UTG raise with AK. I think I got the idea now many thanks

          And nice to know the bet/fold was the right play at the time

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