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10NL 6-Max Zoom: 1010 post flop line

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  • 10NL 6-Max Zoom: 1010 post flop line

    Only 7 hands on this villain 33/17 and 100% cbet%. Since I didnt know him and he was only on 1 table, I assumed he was not a reg.

    http://www.boomplayer.com/en/poker-h...731_4F87320E77

    Preflop I feel 1010 is ok to call with even from ep and there weren't any super aggressive 3bettors behind.

    Villain leads out with less than 50% pot bet on flop. He had 100% cbet rate. So, I thought I was still beating enough of his range to flat. When he checked the turn, I felt pretty confident that the villain did not have a K. This leads to my question:

    Should I control the pot and try to get to showdown? This minimizes my potential loses, and I believe I will win the pot more more times than not at the showdown. Or should I bet on the flop or turn? This may get him to fold JJ and QQ that are beating me. It may also get value from other pairs that I am beating.

    If I had more stats on the villain. Or, if I had something like AQ that had missed the board, I would prefer betting to get small pairs to fold that would beat me at showdown.

    When I saw the vilain's QQ, I was wondering if my passive line cost me this particular pot.

    Thanks!

    Roland GTX

  • #2
    I feel that you run into the top of his range here, and generally we will be missing value by not betting turn and/or river.

    I'd like betting the turn here and checking back the river to get value from underpairs and draws. I think betting two streets for value is a little thin vs a UTG raiser.

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    • #3
      Hi Greg,

      Before even looking at the hand, I see a problem with this:
      He had 100% cbet rate. So,
      No, he doesn't. This is a meaningless stat because it's based on a sample size of 1. This guy may end up c-betting 89% of the time, or 52% of the time for all we know. So far on the data you have he's been the preflop raiser once, and c-bet the flop, maybe he had aces. We don't know.

      In the hand, I like the preflop call. On the flop I do agree with continuing since his c-bet sizing is pretty small. Calling is fine as the board is so dry it should look a lot like we have a K, so I'd expect the villain to slow down if he doesn't have that beat. Raising is also a valid option to protect our equity in the pot vs. hands like AQ/AJ/88 that may well not bluff the turn but will continue in the hand if they improve to beat us. Plus he might fold QQ or JJ to a raise on such a dry board, which is a bonus. Which is better? It's kind of opponent specific and since we have no read (7 hands) I prefer calling in position and seeing what happens on the turn.

      When he checks the turn, this confirms he doesn't have a K imo... I would bet here to protect our equity. The risk of being outdrawn by a free river card needs some compensation to assume (getting paid off light), we don't know that he will pay us off with small pairs or ace high on the end, so I'd opt to not give a free card.
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