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5NL FR - Should I value bet with A high on the turn or river?

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  • 5NL FR - Should I value bet with A high on the turn or river?

    I literally sat down so no reads at all. Villain minraises my big blind, I 3 bet with AQ. 3 unders on the flop, and my continuation bet is called quite quite slowly.

    I feel like the villain has nothing but I elected to check on both the turn and the river, with the plan of calling any bets he makes.

    Is there any point value betting on the turn or river here?

  • #2
    Hi Rob! It feels a little surreal to be analysing a hand of someone I know in real life, but I'll give it a go.

    Pre-flop, 3-betting and flatting are both viable options. Since we'll be playing the hand out of position, we might not want to bloat the pot, but raising does at least seize some initiative. Villain was opening in a stealing position, but only minraised, so his hand is unlikely to be a monster. One of the problems with 3-betting is that villain will usually fold all his trash and only continue with hands that are much stronger. Picking up his 2bb without a fight is nice, but there's likely to be more value in seeing a flop with a hand that is likely to be ahead. When we have AQ, we don't want to get 4-bet off our hand, so I'd usually just flat call here to keep worse hands in the pot, and not manipulate villain's range into hands that have us in worse shape. If I knew villain was much looser and will definitely call with worse, then 3-betting is a better option.

    As played, I think a slightly larger 3-bet is required. 2.4x the open gives too cheap a price for villain to call in position. I'd go with 30c or so. C-betting the rainbow flop is fine. When you're called, I think villain has a pair or a draw pretty often. Hands like KJ and QT are in his range. The turn is a total blank, and I see no point in betting here. It doesn't scare anything in villain's flop-calling range. Just about anything that called on the flop is calling again, so with ace high you should just check. The river is another blank. Based on his turn check, it seems villain has nothing, so I think he'll show up with a missed draw quite often. Your ace high beats hands like KJ, but that isn't calling a bet, so you can't bet for value and get called by worse. Villain will usually check back hands with showdown value (like 9x, 88) but he might bet with missed draws (QJ). Depending on the sizing, I might make a hero-call if villain stabs at the river, but mostly I'd just give up.

    Hope this helps!

    Bracelet Winner


    • #3
      Nice one Arty!

      The villain in question soon donked the rest of his chips to me with his 92 suited against my QQ. I've made a note and he is most welcome at any future ring games!



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