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10nl - Turn play with the nuts

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  • 10nl - Turn play with the nuts

    No stats on villain as HM2 wasn't running. I think it's all pretty standard stuff until the turn. He bets about 1/4 pot, which seems pretty wierd. Obviously I have the board locked up, but I don't want to risk a check/fold on the river by the villain. I figure I could be perceived is a semi-bluff OTT (although unlikely) when i shove. Also if he has a hand like KJcc (again unlikely), he could level himself to calling the my turn shove instead of c/f the river. Thoughts?

  • #2
    I think this is the best play. He has also Ax, JJ, QQ, KK in his range. Now if he is aggressive he will spazz out and he will stack off. The bet on the turn though if he is aggressive looks more like a bet for inducing a raise rather then a blocking bet so standard play is definitely the best. The raise is also for protection since he can have KQ in his range and if he shoves on a club/T on the river you will have a very hard decision.
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    • #3
      Hi birdayy,

      I think a key component of this hand are that the ranges are generally very strong. Despite no pre-deal reads, the action here is that you cold 4-bet preflop, while villain 3b then called the 4b out of position. That sort of removes most semi-bluffs from your range... villain shouldn't perceive your turn shove as a semi-bluff ever unless he has no clue what's going on, as most semi-bluffs would generally raise the flop, not call flop/shove turn, and it would mean that you cold 4b with KQs or worse preflop as well. All very unlikely. Also without reads, I would assign a pretty strong range to the villain here... 99+, AK, AQs.

      The other thing to note here is that the missing ace is the suit of the flopped flush draw. I think that's important, as if the villain held the Ac, I would not expect him to donk out into you on the flop. It would mean he's got AK or AcQc mostly to hold the ace imo, and players would usually check/call or check/raise, expecting the cold 4-bettor to c-bet the flop. KK would probably 5b pre sometimes, and check/call the flop sometimes when it didn't 5b pre, so I expect his donking range to be largely QQ-TT.

      Given that, I like the flop call, but not the turn shove. JJ gets there on the turn but we'll stack that on the river. I would call again, and give TT/QQ one more chance to hit their 2 outs, or failing that to try and push us off KK with a river shove... and our range certainly can look like KK being stubborn with the preflop action then calling twice on this board. If he doesn't bite and check/folds the river, so be it. He is never going to somehow level himself into calling a massively strong turn shove with 2nd or 3rd pair when we have no draws in our range. Even if he would some % of the time, that would just mean he's not really evaluating the situation well and is probably going to try and shove us off the river an even higher % of the time. And if he is going to give no further action either way with those hands (folding to the shove or check/folding the river) then simply calling the turn has a better expectation, as 5% of the time he sets up on the river and stacks off.

      Also as an aside for those who are concerned about protecting their hand against a flush draw, that is not a consideration here at all. If he's somehow got a non-nut flush draw then he's filled with huge leaks given the preflop action, and he's not folding to a raise. He also is probably bluffing missed rivers given the aggressive post flop stance. If he's got AcKc/AcQc, again protection is irrelevant, he won't fold to a raise ever. But he's certainly not check/folding the river with top pair when he misses, so we can get his stack then. While the nut flush draw is certainly possible here, given the line he's chosen, I think QQ-TT are much more likely (obviously the are combinatorically, but also his line indicates this as well), so target the action to maximize value against that range imo.
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      • #4
        Originally posted by TheLangolier View Post
        Given that, I like the flop call, but not the turn shove. JJ gets there on the turn but we'll stack that on the river. I would call again, and give TT/QQ one more chance to hit their 2 outs, or failing that to try and push us off KK with a river shove... and our range certainly can look like KK being stubborn with the preflop action then calling twice on this board. If he doesn't bite and check/folds the river, so be it. He is never going to somehow level himself into calling a massively strong turn shove with 2nd or 3rd pair when we have no draws in our range. Even if he would some % of the time, that would just mean he's not really evaluating the situation well and is probably going to try and shove us off the river an even higher % of the time. And if he is going to give no further action either way with those hands (folding to the shove or check/folding the river) then simply calling the turn has a better expectation, as 5% of the time he sets up on the river and stacks off.
        You raise some good points. I tend to agree with you that the c/c line is more +EV.

        Originally posted by TheLangolier View Post
        But he's certainly not check/folding the river with top pair when he misses, so we can get his stack then. While the nut flush draw is certainly possible here, given the line he's chosen, I think QQ-TT are much more likely (obviously the are combinatorically, but also his line indicates this as well), so target the action to maximize value against that range imo.
        I think whatever he stacks off with OTT vs a shove will be pretty similar to what he shoves or c/c the river with. So from what I gather, by c/c we are keeping in his QQ-TT range and giving the chance for him to hit a set (assuming QQ and TT would c/f the river). I think from a results orientated point of view, c/shove and c/c would net similar expectation, in regards to getting paid off, but the c/c line seems better for the points you raised.

        Also, could it be possible that our shove OTT could be perceived as pouncing on a weak bet that he made, and thus could be called lighter?

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        • #5
          Hi Dave i don't understand why his range on the turn is TT-QQ. Why would he donk the flop and turn with TT and QQ. Is that standard to donk the flop with under pairs when Birdays range looks so strong and hes never folding the flop.

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          • #6
            Originally posted by birdayy View Post
            Also, could it be possible that our shove OTT could be perceived as pouncing on a weak bet that he made, and thus could be called lighter?
            It's possible, if he's not really thinking about the ranges. Again, what can we possibly have that is bluff shoving the turn? What can he possible have that would be a light call? His light calls are TT/QQ, but we have no bluffs here. It's more likely the sizing is a weak attempt to get KK to fold, a trap with JJ to induce further action from KK, or is setting up a big river shove to get us off KK.
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            • #7
              Originally posted by mike2198 View Post
              Hi Dave i don't understand why his range on the turn is TT-QQ.
              Because most players will not donk AK/AQ into the preflop 4-bettor, they check and let them c-bet. And if he held KK his donk bet can never make a better hand fold. TT-QQ are all that's left in his range, so that's why. And a player might give this a try with TT to get birdayy to fold a better pocket pair that doesn't like the ace.
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