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FR 2NL ZOOM, should i have fold the river?

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  • FR 2NL ZOOM, should i have fold the river?

    no reads on villain couldnt he have a set, str8 or AT with the A of clubs? (OTT)
    Last edited by Espada_Nu.4; Sat Aug 24, 2013, 07:56 PM.

  • #2
    No way I am folding river unless he overbets to a ridiculous amount.
    But the value bet could indicate a lower flush or a straight, so we can't really do much but call.

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    • #3
      Hi Espada,

      The chance to flop a flush is 1 in 118 or <1%; so you can imagine the unlikely hood of two opponents flopping a flush which makes this hand sick!
      With that said, I think I would bet the flop and turn bigger to protect from naked clubs when we are raised OTT I think this is a way ahead - way behind situation because given the board texture and our holding if they have a flush they have us beat. Against a limping range of {TT-22, AT-A2, KQ-KT, QJ-QT, JT, T9s-54s, Q9s-Q8s, J9s-86s, J8s-T7s } they have 7 combos of flushes: Ac7c ,Ac5c, Ac3c, Ac2c, KcQc, KcJc, QcJc which all beat us.
      There are 27 combos that would raise the turn: Flush, Straight, Two Pair, Set of Tens.
      { Ac7c ,Ac5c, Ac3c, Ac2c, KcQc, KcJc, QcJc, TT, QJo, T9s, T8s, 76s }
      They will have:
      Flush 25%
      Straight 55%
      Set 5%
      2pair 15%
      We have 70% equity, I call turn

      OTR, when the 7 comes I think all non J straights and two pair will check back here
      So let's remove 76s, T8 and T9; they will now bet QJ ( I think for them to call with QJ OTF they would do this with a Qc or Jc ) SO that reduces the combos of QJ going to the river
      which means we now lose to 54% of his river bet range and win against 46% of his range. Which makes it a pretty close decision here. His bet size OTR means we only need to be good 25% of the time so I think calling here is not a mistake although one might argue that even a QJ would check back the river in which case we are never good in that spot.

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