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Flop raise from agro reg slowplay or not?

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  • Flop raise from agro reg slowplay or not?

    player 5 stats

    hands = 843
    vpip = 19
    pfr = 16
    3 bet = 6.8
    flop raise v c bet = 34%
    turn c bet = 67%
    river c bet = 100%
    af = 4.8
    win rate 46.49bb/100

    i also have a note on him that he can 3 barrel bluff

    is the slow play the best option here

    if i am paying off ak 88 or k8 i want max value form his bluffs and flush draws

    i do not thick he has ak i think he 3 bets ak in this spot

  • #2
    Hi XXXX,

    I think you played it fine, but have a couple ideas to toss out.

    First of all, what I think it's important to do is take the situation, and reads, and determine what mistakes our opponent is most likely to make in this spot... and then what line we can take to encourage those mistakes.

    Here we flop very strong against a villain that contests the pot very aggressively when he decides to do so. His mistakes are likely to be in the area of over-aggressing (bluffing or overvaluing made hands). Lines that will encourage more of these mistakes are lines that look "weak". Passively check-calling is one of those lines, so I like it better than making a big reraise or strong aggressive action, but it's not the only one.

    First let's range him: I agree with you, we can basically discount AK completely... he doesn't seen like the type to flat AK much preflop. As a side bar, you have enough hands to actually check this one out I think... change the player to be him in your tracker, starting hand to be AK, and see how he's played them preflop. I wouldn't be surprised if this player over 843 hands is 100/100 so far with AK (always raising or 3-betting), if he's not, take a look at the few times he didn't 3b and see what he did (and try to figure out why).

    Ok, so for made hands, 88 is possible, as is KTs-KQo imo... again with K8, I doubt he's calling an UTG raise with it preflop, he's pretty TAG for 6-max. In fact if he were ever going to play K8 here I'd expect it more likely to be in his light 3-betting range than flat calling range. So I think if we are behind right now, it is mostly only to 88. Other made hands he might flat pre and raise on the flop: 99, A8s, other pocket pairs just testing you (because he doesn't want to fold yet, not sure where he's at, and he doesn't like to just call). Non-made hands would consist of any flush draws in his range, and some measure of bluffs.

    I like just calling his flop raise, because it will induce him to make future mistakes with his bluffs and weak made hands (if we reraise the flop, he will play all these perfectly and fold them). And it doesn't hurt us against the other stuff. In particular flush draws... some people like to raise again to "protect their hand" from the draw, but that thought is misplaced here... I seriously doubt this guy is raise/folding a flush draw on the flop, so our reraise wouldn't protect anything, it would simply get more value from the draw immediately. But this is a villain who will give us the value later in the hand anyway, so by not raising we're not really losing that additional value, just deferring it to later in the hand. There is always some risk we don't realize that value later, but against this villain type I think that risk is smaller than normal, and more than compensated for by the extra value we are inducing from A8/other pairs, and bluffs.

    I don't mind check/calling all the way to induce, but an alternative "weak" line might be to lead out with a blocking bet on the turn or river. Something really small. I think in this spot I'd check/call the turn as I don't think he'll take a free card if he is drawing, I expect him to blast again, as well as barrel his bluffs. Once we've called twice though I'm not as optimistic he'll bluff it off on the river, and certainly may now check down any showdown value hands in his range. He's only got 1.07 left on the river, if we lead out for something that looks silly like .15c, he will call us with all showdown value hands I expect (including ace high) and perhaps shove his bluffs because he feels super weak folding to this tiny bet and can't win a showdown by calling. I think sometimes for players like this, it's actually easier to check back and give up a bluff than it is to fold to a silly tiny bet, so sometimes they were prepared to give up and now stack it off instead because they just can't stand it.
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