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NL2 zoom, 160bb deep, facing 5b against regular

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  • NL2 zoom, 160bb deep, facing 5b against regular

    Villain: 26/21/14, AF:0.8, one hand seen with 3b: AQs, CBF:60, CBT:50, WWSF:20, attempt to steal:14%! (he doesn't like blinds) - 48 hands-so he knows my stats around: 16/13/4 From his stats I think he is regular, probably a mass multilayer, who only fires when he has it. His stack size is big. His 5b size is a bit small, he cant think I would fold with AK. He has KK or AA - opinions? He does not have AK for sureness off 92% (imo), no QQ, sureness 95%, KK is highly improbable, and only hands left are AA or bluff. So I actually should fold? (crazy) Given his 3b % and blinds (too few hands to be sure) my 4b was ok?, but now I need to fold ?
    Last edited by braveslice; Sun Aug 04, 2013, 08:24 PM.

  • #2
    Hi braveslice,

    The sample size of 48 hands is pretty small, so it's hard to use the stats to derive solid knowledge about his 3b/5b ranges here, but the one piece of evidence that doesn't require stats argues for us to get the money in here imo... the single 3b we've seen shown was AQs. I would note the positions when you see that, it's very relevant... if he was 3-betting from the BB vs. a SB open, this is totally standard even from a tight 3-bettor. If he was 3-betting AQs vs. an UTG open from UTG+1, then I'd rate him to be a pretty aggressive 3-bettor.

    At any rate, this is a spot where we would expect him to be 3-betting a fairly wide value range, vs. a button open, and if he does 3b light ever, this is the spot where it's most likely as well. So I think 4-betting is fine here. Flatting in position is fine as well to keep his range wide, and against a reg (who may notice such things) to keep your flatting range uncapped so you're harder to play against in the future when you flat these spots with more marginal holdings.

    So after we get 5b small, I guess if he's a nit we should fold, but I can't find a fold here given that he's not a nit, and it's button v blind where ranges will naturally be a bit wider.

    While 6b shoving isn't bad, I think it may not be optimal since his sizing allows him room to fold to a shove, which creates some doubt... he could be restealing light once in a while or trying to define where he's really at with a hand like JJ (not a great play imo but it happens). It may be more optimal to flat this action, and shove over his c-bet on any flop (including ace high flops). But at this point either way is fine imo.
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    • #3
      AK is the hand that you will encounter the most and even against a nitty range QQ+, AKs you are actually ahead so ship it already.
      And if he ends up with aces that sucks but still, kings vs aces is the most standard cooler for a reason.

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      • #4
        If he cbets the flop 60% of the time he doesnt always fire when hes strong, im stacking off KK vs anyone except a nit you should never be worried about aces fro any other player unless you know they have AA when they take a certain lines.

        As far as im concerned your make more money getting all in with KK than you will when you lose but if you do it vs a nit then your gonna run intoo AA and KK alot.

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        • #5
          Originally posted by mike2198 View Post
          If he cbets the flop 60% of the time he doesnt always fire when hes strong,
          Careful not to misuse this stat. 60% is an average over all circumstances (which in this case happens to be 6 out of 10 opportunities)... not reliable over this sample and certainly we would expect him to c-bet much more frequently as the preflop 5-bettor.
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          • #6
            Thx Dave, I did shove. Maybe I did not give enough thought about the fact this is a blind situation. Next time I try calling (well I already did) against tag as you suggested to keep his range wide.

            GamblingProp, out of interest I looked all the AI situations against tag reg with about 100bb and got:
            AA(1),KK(1),AK(3),TT(1), when in blinds: AA(2),QQ(1) - 26k hands.

            So the EV is healthy positive 0.46 x pot size.

            On regular table I'm sure it is AK, but really zoom is fit and fold, and mostly for the reason. I would hardly ever push AK against tag in NL2 zoom.
            Last edited by braveslice; Tue Aug 06, 2013, 04:06 AM.

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            • #7
              Ok, here is hand with KK, where I flatted against reg player. Villain4: 20 hands, most likely reg, 39/22/10, AF:5, [CB:67] Villain3: 3 hands, most likely fish, 66/33 This time flat calling 4bet was easy, because of dave’s notes (played this after reading this, answered later in forum) and most importantly I wanted to keep fish in, as Dave has said many times in one video at least. The pot was so big that he could have shoved AK too I think. He being a bit more aggressive probably smoothens the fact that he is UTG. I don't know. Against this guy I would be happy to go AI with KK even when he is UTG raiser, but I still have my doubts against the first player.
              Last edited by braveslice; Mon Aug 05, 2013, 02:26 AM.

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