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10NL Regular Speed - JJ facing UTG raise

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  • 10NL Regular Speed - JJ facing UTG raise

    This hand took place on a 10nl table - regular speed. I have 56 hands on the villain when the action took place and he is running at 20/4 over that sample. I give him a tightish range of QQ+ and AKo/AKs. Too tight a range to assign? I call his UTG raise on the button and flop a set. On the flop I expect it to hit him in some shape or manner. I think the most likely hands he holds at this point are AA/AK/QQ. A set of K's is possible of course. When he cbets I am calling because I still think I am ahead and I think it keeps him in the pot where he might fold otherwise to a raise depending on what he holds. The turn brings a Q, which is slightly concerning, because I had thought his UTG raise was a strong raise based on the limited stats I have. My ranging included KK/QQ which have both have hit sets on this board. It also brings a straight draw on board, the only likely one I am thinking of is A-T straight draw, as I dont think he is in there with anything that brings a lower straight into play. When he bets I still think I am ahead, but I elected to raise him, both because I think I am still ahead and I also want to make sure he pays to draw. When he re-raises I have already made my decision that I am going with my hand and will be getting the money in. How would my line be assessed here? Was I too rash in re-raising on the turn when the board was getting a little scary? Should I have opted for pot control and adopted a x/c line?

  • #2
    I think you should raise flop because a spade on the tun will definitely slow down the action.
    You played it fine though, money has to go in every time on the turn.
    Check calling turn is the worst decision, especially if you put him on a tight range, as you will lose a lot of value.

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    • #3
      Hi bhoylegend,

      QQ+, AK+ seems a bit tight, I know he's only 4% PFR but it's a small sample, he may just have been running bad. I would give him at least TT+, AQs+.

      I really don't like check/calling the flop, I don't mind checking, but I think we should be raising when he bets. The reason is we should be thinking about how to get his stack in the middle here. It's a single raised pot so we basically need an overbet somewhere along the way, or 4 streets of action... the easiest place to slip the 4th street in is right now on the flop will the bet sizings are relatively small.

      Also the reason you stated for check/calling, to keep him in the pot... this is not a good spot for it because AA and AK aren't going anywhere, they aren't folding to a check/raise. The only hand that's folding to a c/r here is QQ, and we actually WANT that hand to fold now, as it seems very unlikely he'll put any more money in the pot with it after the c-bet gets called, unless he sucks out on us. So c/r denies QQ a card to realize it's equity of the 2 outter, and sets up stacks by the river vs. AK and AA.

      I think you can still get it in on the turn... 3 combos of QQ and KK is 6 combos beating you, there's 6 combos of AA and 12 of AK, so if he is willing to stack all those in on the turn you'd be an 18-6 or 3-1 favorite to be ahead.
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      • #4
        Thanks for the analysis Dave.

        I figured the ranging was probably on the tight side. When I looked at the hand in more detail before posting I noticed that most of his raises actually come from early position, none from middle and a few from the button/sb. So the stats seem to be just a quirk over a relatively small number of hands.

        My line should have been x/r flop then bet/bet assuming he allows that action and doesn't get it all in on flop.

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