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Horrible river... good fold or?

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  • Horrible river... good fold or?

    I believe this river is the worst card or one of the worse and we can only fold. Advice pls as I believe I played it well and gave him wrong odds too. Thanks Etienne
    Last edited by etipac; Sat Jul 20, 2013, 08:17 AM.

  • #2
    since we dont have any reads or stats on the villain I just assume he is a reggish abc player.

    I think bet fold about 8$ on the river would be better than check fold. He still has a a lot of Ax in his range (A/10 A/J and A/Q mainly) and he often does not get away from those making trips on the river. He also often would bet those trips himself after you check to him imo, so you can get some value and protect yourself from getting valuebetted of your hand by a worse hand by bet folding the river.

    I think that outways the disadvantage of betting, which is of course valueowning ourself vs flushes and boats. Although boats are not super likely imo since he would play thoose faster on flop or turn sometimes.

    As played, his potsize river bet indicates strenght, which makes flushes and boats more likely imo, but its still close imo. If he would bet a his Aces big as well on the river, he likely would have a range like:
    55,22,AQs-ATs,KdQd,KdJd,QdJd,QdTd,JdTd,Td9d,9d8d,8d7d,AQo-ATo
    which you crush with 63% equity since his Ax combinations would be such a big part of his range. So not sure about the river call vs unknown, think its close and another reason to make your life easier with a bet fold line.

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    • #3
      Hi Etienne,

      I agree with Bald here... I think Ax is more so part of his range than flush draws. He's never full here (mostly) because we could expect him to raise 2 pair or a set earlier in the hand. Even on the turn with a 4 liner to a straight on the board, as you were the preflop raiser he should have no fear of you holding a 3 and feel safe to raise away with a set or aces up.

      When you check, I assume he will bet all flushes. He may or may not bet an ace (he may check down a hand like AT in case you are scared of the flush and check/calling with AK or AQ). So I think bet/folding is better here, I like 8-9, then if he shoves it's a pretty comfortable fold as I doubt he's shoving trip aces, but he'll always call you with trip aces.
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      • #4
        We can only fold? I am shoving there lol.
        Seriously though, checking river makes you lose value from Ax type hands and brings you on that spot where you have no idea what to do.
        So next time bet/bet/bet.

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