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10nl - Top set on low board 3b pot

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  • 10nl - Top set on low board 3b pot

    BTN: $2.65 - VPIP: 0, PFR: 0, 3B: 0, AF: 0.0, Hands: 4 SB: $19.07 - VPIP: 18, PFR: 15, 3B: 10, AF: 3.5, Hands: 465 BB: $19.11 - VPIP: 33, PFR: 17, 3B: 0, AF: 0.0, Hands: 6 UTG: $29.15 - VPIP: 11, PFR: 0, 3B: 0, AF: 0.0, Hands: 9 Hero (MP): $23.40 CO: $9.47 - VPIP: 8, PFR: 8, 3B: 0, AF: 2.0, Hands: 12 Villain is a 10nl TAG zoom reg. I think we are deep enough to flat pre against a 3b. Obviously flop is gin for us. I weighed up slowplaying, but I think there are some good arguments for fastplaying; 1) On a low board, it hits his perceived 3betting range, so he could think we are making a play at him. I'm not sure if my bet sizing ($3.99) might mess with his head a little, because i've found with villains get fancy with their sizes they are bluffing more often. 2) If he has an overpair, he's not folding on the flop. 3) If he has AK or overcards he's probably not going to triple barrel on such a low board. 4) We are 200bb deep and if we want to stack him we need a better SPR on the turn.
    Last edited by birdayy; Sun Jul 14, 2013, 05:03 PM.

  • #2
    Hi birdayy,

    He seems pretty aggro post flop... we are deep enough (the chips are there) to call for a set but will he also give those chips up often enough is a key question. I think we can profitably call here:

    -If he will give them up a lot, like if he will give 2 streets minimum with AK high (barreling twice, c-betting then check/calling a street, etc) and will stack off overpairs. (now we are just set mining basically)

    -If he will be exploitable post flop this deep, where we can take pots away on favorable board textures without needing a set.

    -If he will play very predictably post flop

    Post flop, absolutely I like raising his c-bet. You gave no info about his barreling frequency, but we want to get more money in right now against all overpairs and there are so many scary turn cards for him. If he has JJ for instance than any 6,7,8,Q,K,A are all scare cards, that's a lot of action killers. Raising now is our best chance to build a big pot and maybe even get stacks in right on the flop.
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    • #3
      Thanks Dave. Some good points you made given the stats I had on him.

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