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10nl - Paper thin value OTR?

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  • 10nl - Paper thin value OTR?

    BTN: $17.04 - VPIP: 17, PFR: 8, 3B: 0, AF: 0.0, Hands: 12 SB: $10.27 - VPIP: 9, PFR: 6, 3B: 0, AF: 0.4, Hands: 34 Hero (BB): $27.43 UTG: $9.49 - VPIP: 14, PFR: 9, 3B: 0, AF: 0.0, Hands: 64 MP: $10.35 - VPIP: 33, PFR: 26, 3B: 0, AF: 0.0, Hands: 46 CO: $10.00 - VPIP: 17, PFR: 14, 3B: 9, AF: 3.2, Hands: 395 Normally this is a 3b but since villain is a nit over a small sample I think it'd better to flat and play it in position. If i was 4b here by this particular villain it'd probably be a disgruntled fold. Can we get called by worse here enough for the river bet to be profitable?
    Last edited by birdayy; Thu Jul 11, 2013, 10:02 AM.

  • #2
    It is very close versus a nit.
    But it is a SB versus BB spot so he could show up with a wider range there
    I think I would bet smaller on the river to make him call us with any pair.

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    • #3
      Not quite sure if I like a river bet on that texture, but betting small might work. I can't really think of too many combos he could actually call river with except for sth like A8/A9 and the or sth like that. Problem with nits in my experience is they check/call turns like its their job when a scarecard hits so he might actually end up having overpairs, 2 pair, sets or even straights in that spot. I'd probably just check it back given that you were not really happy 3-betting TT for value in a blind vs blind spot.
      Live Trainer



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      • #4
        Thanks Felix. I figured it was a little thin vs a nit. He ended up calling with 77.

        It's unlikely he has a straight because we have blockers. Also, given his nit stats, we could probably eliminate some suited connectors which would make two pair on this sort of board. Given this, and that we'd assume he'd bet > 2 pair on the river, it's still kind of close.

        Obviously its a small sample size to base our read on, so we should err on the side of value betting rather than checking? This is the sought of situation where i'd like to have a few thousand hands to base my read upon.

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