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25NL - Do you make the call?

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  • 25NL - Do you make the call?

    Villain 28/24/7 (111) 3bet 15% 3bet vs UTG 11% (18) 3bet from SB 20% (5) Normally when someone with a tight 3bet stat raises my UTG open I would throw away Jacks, but this guy seemed to be on the loose side so I decided to take a flop. Flop is kinda standard I guess, I figure he would cbet with his entire range: PPs, AK, AQs, KQs, and some fluffs OTT, when he checks to us I decided to check back to pot control and because if we bet there are not so many hands we beat that can call and we do not fold worse and we rarely will get outdrawn OTR (~16% for A or K or set) What do you think of his river bet? What does he take this line with? His turn check makes it look like he did not like the Q or so he might be trying to show us; Are there enough bluffs in his range that would take that line (If he were to bluff with AK, I think he should be 2barrelling the turn)? or did he miraculously make a set of 6s?

  • #2
    I'm not cash player and I may make a lot of mistakes , but I'll write what I think. Your play looks like as you control pot with mid pairs , and he might try to take pot OTR with pot bet with hole of he's hand range. 3bet% from SB looks high for a tourney, I don't know how is it for cash games. I wouldn't exclude QQ though, it seems that he didn't like Q but he might sloe play it there. I would bet OTT, because it's clear I won't have cheap show down. As played I think it's clear fold, my plan is crushed , I don't call there.
    Last edited by Shichi-77; Tue Jul 09, 2013, 02:15 PM.


    • #3
      yeah you line definately looks like what it is mainly decent pp's. I wouldnt be surprised if he has us beat, the check on the turn could well be pot control on his part wanting to see the river cheap if possible. Then if a flush card comes he isnt in such a difficult spot, needing to check and turning his hand face up. The river bet is big which could be a busted draw but I think he keeps betting them on the turn. AQs maybe?
      Bracelet Winner


      • #4
        Feels like AKs,77,88,TT,QQ,KK. As played I'm calling the river and expecting to see a middle pocket pair like 77,88,TT. Probably TT. He may be trying something funny checking the turn but it really feels like a pocket pair that's scared that you may have hit one of your outs. If he's got us beat then so be it.

        That being said, I could be completely wrong.


        • #5
          Seeing how it played out I would be calling here.
          The big bet actually makes me think he is weak and doesn't want a call. Besides, his stats are fairly aggro, even for a small sample. Although it wouldn't surprise me if a hand reviewer will call it close, between call and fold.

          If I had top pair or better in his spot I would have bet the river smaller (6 - 7) to try and get a call from AK and JJ or smaller PP.

          I would have a look at the villains CBET stats for the flop, turn and river, and combine that information with WTSD and W$SD, to try and find a clue in those stats if he does this often (bluffy) or not (strong). Also his AF could be interesting in deciding a call or fold.


          • #6
            3bet pre obv for value and to get a better idea on his range.
            As played I think river sizing is kinda polarized which indicates top pair, sets, AA KK and pure bluffs.
            So calling or folding depends on villain, on this particular case probably fold.


            • #7
              I like pre, Flop and Turn. You could argue betting the turn at least sometimes to protect yourself from getting bluffed/having a tough river spot as there are so many bad cards that can come off.

              As played I would expect most aggressive regs to bet this particular turncard with most of their drawing hands and some air too. Once he checks and bets river it looks like he might have wanted to check/shove turn giving you some rope or fearing for a fold from most of your medium strength hands OTT.

              Without further reads I'd probably fold.
              Live Trainer



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