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10nl - Missed flush draw

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  • 10nl - Missed flush draw

    Villain: 29/21/7.7 Just wondering if you guys are bluffing this river when your draw misses. If we range him on PP (not sets as they would most likely raise turn or flop) and draws then the K is very disconnected from the rest of the board. I think it's quite possible for us to have a K in our range (AhKh, KK, KhQh) and can get a lot of folds from the Ts, Js, Qs etc that are calling us down

  • #2
    I would have preferred the river bluff if the King would have come on the turn and the 4 on the river. That way you could have represented the King more credibly and you would have more fold equity vs JJ, QQ and Tx, although not sure if he would fold JJ, QQ or AT either way.

    You will still fold out some weak Tx and some sticky 99,88 or 7x combos that he was reluctant to fold on the turn with your river bet though and you prevent being bluffed of your hand by his missed draws.

    So all in all bluffing the river depends on how wide the villain calls the turn imo, if you think he calls with worse than Tx bluffing the river is good and if he folds everything worse than Tx I would just check fold the river.
    Last edited by almigthybald; Sun Jul 07, 2013, 02:56 PM.

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    • #3
      Birday do you have to win every pot lol, ive noticed when you put money in a pot you don't like folding when you miss, fair enough but have you looked if you would be saving money by not bluffing when you get caught out?

      I do like your play though because i think a good player should be folding AT and should be raising the turn atleast with a set, so i think he has a T and the only time he should call that river bet is if he had KT or he knew you was capable of barreling your draws strong.

      But even if he knows you barrel your draws strong i dont think it would be a profitable call by him with a Tx hand, looks like a good play by you but its one of those can the villain fold.

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      • #4
        Yeah its one of those ones where in a vacuum (and theoretically) its a good play, but totally villian dependent. A LOT of these guys wont fold flopped tp even if river is an overcard and then your really just owning yourself, if they are that bad wait until you do have it or your ip and they are checking to you. But i like the intent.
        Bracelet Winner

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        • #5
          Villain has Reg like stats so assuming he is a thinking player he should know that 3 barrels from other thinking players is not often a bluff. Also, he probably isn't afraid of a K in your range except KK (if he has a lower set he is never folding though).

          If anything he should be ranging you on a set or overpair OTR based on the way you played the hand, UTG raise + 3 barrels (extremely big bet OTR when Draws miss) seems like a legitimate story in a 6 max setting: (22+, KQs+, AJ0+) but I can probably guess your opening ranges are probably a lot wider than that . A T probably cant continue here, neither can busted draws obviously, so if you get looked up its probably going to be by 2P+ or JJ,QQ,AA, that bet size is very scary.

          Personally I wouldn't make this bluff very often (people don't like to fold TP ) but if you had a very good reason for doing it then its ok. Its most likely profitable if this guy deserves the credit I'm giving him as a reasonably thinking player atm since you only need folds a little less than half the time (to lazy to do math).

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          • #6
            I'd probably not expect most regs to fold this river when you can only represent such a few strong hand combos and all draws bust out. Since villain flatted your UTG open I think he may also be quite strong in that spot with sets, good TPs or even JJ+. For those reasons I'd rather not bet, but instead check and decide after evaluating what he does. The fact that all draws bust out can be an advantage to you as you hold A high and could potentially bluffcatch against what will probably a be a polarized handrange of sets or busted draws in case he bets.
            Live Trainer



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            • #7
              Thanks guys. I'll think again before bluffing scare cards. I'm guessing check/shoving as a bluff would be pretty insane here?

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