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NL 25 Zoom: TP on the River but nothing worse will call a bet

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  • NL 25 Zoom: TP on the River but nothing worse will call a bet

    Hi , only 7 hands on villain, he seems a bit fishy cause of stack size but I want to figure out how to play this hand vs a standard reg, so lets assume he is a standard reg. I think betting or checking the flop is both fine and once I check the flop I should bet this turn for value. I think the most interesting street is the River. I did a pretty indepth River analysis of the hand and here are my results: Range that the (reg) villain gets to the river with: TT-88, 66-55, ATs-A6s, Tc9c, Tc8c, 9c8c, 9d7d, 9h7h, 9c7c, 8d7d, 8h7h, 8c7c, 7d6d, 7h6h, 7c6c, 6c5c, 5c4c, ATo My debatable assumptions for his range are: - he calls with 55-66 on the turn - he raises his monsters on the turn - he bets his spade FD on the flop I calculated my stack at the end of the hand for three possible lines X/F, X/C and B/F X/F = only 26,61 since he would bluff with 55/66 X/C = 27,6 since I could bluffcatch profitable B/F = 27,21 Interpretation: - Bluffcatching would be most profitable but only if both assumptions hold: he has small pocker pairs in his range and would bluff with them. - He might even value bet his AX hand on the river sometime which would make X/F even worse. - He might get to the river with some spadedraws as well and bluff thoose which would make bluffcatching even better. - this is only valid vs a thinking reg vs a fish bet fold might be better to get called by 88/99 and maybe even 7/x. Additional Question: I calculated my expected stacksize at the end of the hand, could someone tell me to what EV that translates?
    Last edited by almigthybald; Sat Jul 06, 2013, 03:56 PM.

  • #2
    bet/fold or check/fold, ie bet/call and check/call are out of the question So bet/fold for value in this spot umbup: If villain raises he has a better hand. But his range looks weak and there are worse hands that can call us.



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