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25NL - Jack Link's Beef Jerky Hand

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  • 25NL - Jack Link's Beef Jerky Hand

    Here's a brain crusher only for you guys! I've deliberately removed my holding for this one. Can you read my hand? SB: 25/20/3 (641)- Fold to steal 69% BB: 21/14/1 (42) - Fold to steal 80%

  • #2
    92 or an Ax flush I guess?

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    • #3
      U think i'd open 92 OTB?

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      • #4
        Maan, it could be anything

        He overcalled preflop against btn open = weak, he checked to us 3 times on a very dry board = weak. This tells me that he can be either slowplaying a monster or has a genuinely weak hand. Since having a monster on that board is super difficult and I cannot see him checking river with any boat or flush I am probably trying to bluff with anything worse than A high (his stats look like he has a fold button plug in installed). The board is reasonably dry and both villains' ranges are quite weak OTF which means you could have cbet with almost any 2 if you wanted. If the villain was a weaker regular I would overbet the river and get him off any weak pair which might sometimes make a curiosity call (for a smaller bet that is).

        I do not know your game very well but I would probably call you here very light. probably calling with any pair and AK,AQ, but that is me and I do have to admit that my fold button mysteriously disappears from time to time. Having said that I hope you are value betting 77 or better yourself(Not necessarily with that sizing)?
        Last edited by TommyGun369; Wed Jul 03, 2013, 10:48 PM.

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        • #5
          Interesting thought process there Tommy!
          "I would probably call you here very light" with that said, I assume you would not bluff river yourself then?

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          • #6
            3c5c AcXc or pocket 4s/ more likely a bluff

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            • #7
              No that means that I would almost always use the opportunity against a weaker player but would probably give up against a stronger opponent. Basically he can only have a bluff catcher so what I would do highly depends on my read on him. I think this is a decent spot to bluff overbet (or just bet big like you did) against an unknown though... I might be terribly wrong

              Is he likely to call with a 6, 77 or 88? With a big bet I could sometimes even get him off TT or JJ? I think I would either try to look polarized with a hand like T9,88,77; make a complete bluff or value bet small with a strong hand (since he looks so weak). I know this is easily exploitable so my preferred action is very read dependent. And since we do not have any reads...

              I cannot help myself but I think I would not be able to fold a pair in this situation. That is just because I am not used to playing against villains who can marge in these spots effectively (maybe this is no longer true at 25NL) so against a polarized range from the button I think a pair is easily good 30% of the time. I would be paying off a flush or some random boat like 44 sometimes but I would not be surprised at all to see a hand like JhTh...

              please quickly prove me wrong so I can stop spewing money

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              • #8
                I would think your opponent has showdown value - calling preflop this time when they fold so often to steals - and check-calling the dry flop. When you both check down the turn the 9 has not probably improved anybody and the river club completes flush draws (or unlikely low straight) but doesn't help much else. I would expect opponent to have a small or medium pair - not 44, 66 or 99 though so 33/55/77/88 maybe or and ace/6 king/6. I don't see them having the flush often. Your checking the turn betting the river looks likely for a flush draw from the button - but I would probably call your river bet with some pairs - certainly with 77 or 88 as I think you have as many bluffs as actual flushes. I might call with A6/K6 too.

                Not enough info on the opponent really - but if I was in your spot I would probably only bet the river if I have showdown value - I don't expect bluffs to work much here.

                Ed
                Last edited by EdinFreeMan; Wed Jul 03, 2013, 08:57 PM.
                4 Time Bracelet Winner


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                • #9
                  Here's my take on it: I am eliminating a flush...because I don't think it is profitable to bet more than half pot on the flop with a flush draw (correct me if I'm wrong). You min-raised pre and value bet on the flop: that's likely to be an overpair or a flopped boat or even quads. You checked the turn most likely for deception and because the villain's most likely folding to a turn barrel. Your value betting pocket pairs, flushes on the river. I think the villain had a mid-pair type hand 55, 77, 88, that called the flop bet but folded on the river because of the flush which got there.

                  How did I do?
                  Bracelet Winner

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                  • #10
                    Originally posted by RFlush007 View Post
                    Here's my take on it: I am eliminating a flush...because I don't think it is profitable to bet more than half pot on the flop with a flush draw
                    fold equity. heard about it before?

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                    • #11
                      Originally posted by geoVARTA View Post
                      Interesting thought process there Tommy!
                      "I would probably call you here very light" with that said, I assume you would not bluff river yourself then?
                      Just to elaborate on this a bit more. I would call you light because I think you are capable of taking these bluff opportunities against weak ranges often enough to make it profitable. Against some villains I would fold a hand like 32 without feeling too band (not that I would have that in my range that often )

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                      • #12
                        You flopped quads. Amirite?
                        Bracelet Winner

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                        • #13

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                          • #14
                            Am i the only one that cheated? lol It wasn't what I thought it was Did the villain fold to the river bet Geo? umbup:

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                            • #15
                              99?
                              2+something of clubs?
                              on my stakes you would have a very good hand on the river
                              Last edited by Praydk; Thu Jul 04, 2013, 08:54 AM.

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