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25NL - triple barell bluff?

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  • 25NL - triple barell bluff?

    Here's a hand that I have mixed feelings about; In general, I've been having some confidence issues with my game since I've moved up to 25nl - could be run bad or unlucky board runouts which I feel has forced me off my game and pushing hard to win hands. Anyway, here's the hand and my thought process: We open the SB with A2s and got called in the BB; the BB is unknown but by the stack size the opponent looks recreational and fishy. We hit bottom pair on a dry-ish flop; We cbet for value I guess and capitalization of dead money. Once we are called on this flop, I think our opponent could have TP type of hand or a Pair + Draw, st8 Draw/gutshot, or two overs. When the Q hits the turn, I think we need to start looking to turn our hand into a bluff against TP hands and not give a way a free card. So I decide to bet turn and get called again. The reason why I titled this hand as "25NL - triple barell bluff" is because I don't think our pair has SD value The question is do we bet this river? especially now that a backdoor flush made it. The rule clearly states: never bluff a fish BUT how does the turn and river help our fold equity? Do you think this thought process is flawed? and how would you have played this hand OTF and OTT otherwise, and what would you do OTR?

  • #2
    What range of hands do you think villain calls the turn with?

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    • #3
      A6,A5,A3,75,65,54
      99,88,77,55,33
      AQ,KQ,QJ,QT,Q9
      JTs-J8s, Axs

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      • #4
        If you are ever going to bluff this guy this is one of the best board runouts you could be hoping for. If you do not bluff this through (or think like me it is not a good idea to do it b vs b against a fishy shortstacker) then do not even bother cbetting. Check call and proceed cautiously from there that's how I would play the hand

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        • #5
          Hey Geo I think the best river card in the deck for us to bluff villain off some one pair hand like 33 that is better than our one pair is an offsuit, non spade, king. On this king villain will have more flushes than you might think and they are never folding. I don't mind this line so much if you are going to bet the flop, but there are a ton of alterantives here. One line I like here is betting the flop and check-calling the turn. This is situation where a) villain has a very wide flop continuing range and b) will not be always value betting every better hand when the Q comes out and c) doesn't have much QX themselves. So some villains will correctly bet 55 in position on this Q turn, but often villains in this spot won't. Which means they will be firing a float-heavy turn range in this spot. When that's true we really can take advantage of them with a turn check-call and they will not often put the full pressure on us on the river. The final alternative is to check-call flop. I like this option a decent amount. Whether we check-call or bet the flop, we probably keep villain's AX in his turn range, so that we will realize our implied odds on the two tainted A turns. But check-calling perhaps does a better job of that I think. We can pretty much check-call any turn card and check-fold the river after check-calling turn, unimproved, without being too worried. As played, on this runout, I would expect a shove to be profitable. But there might be more +EV lines out there. I hope you enjoyed reading this umbup:

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          • #6
            Thanks Gareth umbup: Atleast you don't hate the river shove; I did end up shoving and he called with K5! Give me a freaking break!

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            • #7
              That's no problem, when he has a hand that strong he will call and he can have hands like that. That his turn calling range is that wide really helps our argument for shoving the river.

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