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25NL - River decision with 2pair

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  • 25NL - River decision with 2pair

    Villain 17/15/13 (216) UTG PFR 14% Fold to 3bet 100%(4) BB is a nit I decided to defend my SB with AQs Easy c/c OTF; and was consider a c/r OTR but villain checks back; I lead river for value and we get raised. Are we ever good here? Is this a backdoor flush spot? Would you call considering his Agg of 13.0?

  • #2
    Ok so here is 14% of hands

    22+,ATs+,KJs+,QTs+,JTs,ATo+,KJo+

    Which of these need to bluff raise the river? Well I suppose 33-88 does and TT/JJ might realize they do. KJ/KJs/JTs all might need to bluff, but some of those have clubs. The thing is, when the ace is not on the board, the potential flush combinations go way up. So what about these 14% of hands.

    33+,A2s+,KJs+,QTs+,JTs,AJo+,KQo

    boy we are in tough against that range, because all AXcc combinations that I can see outside of AKcc have issues betting the turn. They either chop with another ace or could be in trouble against AQ/AK. So that's A3cc A4cc A5cc A6cc A7cc A8cc Atcc and AJcc. That's a lot of flushes.

    I would fold here because even with AF = 13, why didn't he use that AF on the turn? Is this a board or situation that a lot of people feel compelled to bluff in? I think there is probably a reason he didn't bet the turn and that's because he didn't see a bluff being profitable or he didn't have a bluffing hand. And I don't think he has one now either so I would fold.

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