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25NL - Bluff river spot?

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  • 25NL - Bluff river spot?

    Villain 23/14/2 (59) 3bet 10% (21) Fold to cbet 67% (3) Decided to go for a loose steal here from the BTN with T7s; looking to take down the pot quite often by a Cbet when the BB doesn't 3bet us. Flop is a standard cbet here, and we get called. OTT we pick up FD, but I decided to check back to realize my equity and keep the pot small on a paired board incase we are not good when we do hit. Obviously a Q is never folding to a turn bet and might raise us off our draw. I think small pocket pairs would have folded to a flop bet. So by betting turn we are looking for TT/99 or A8 to fold; and there are more Qx combos than TT/99. So I think checking turn is the optimal line. When the river is checked to us though, do you think the K is a good card to bet to get TT/99 or A8 to fold? or do you feel we will get called more often here? Do you think a Qx or a fullhouse would've checked the river?
    Last edited by geoVARTA; Mon Jul 01, 2013, 04:57 PM.

  • #2
    When the river is checked to us though, do you think the K is a good card to bet to get TT/99 or A8 to fold? or do you feel we will get called more often here? Do you think a Qx or a fullhouse would've checked the river?
    Hey Geo I think this is a great card to fire another bet. How many QX or KX can our opponent have on the river after they have checked and played their hand this way? Also, we have T high, and therefore considering a bluff is mandatory. Basically in situations like this you can have a fairly simple calculus. You have no showdown value and a scare card. So bluff. If he looks you up with some one pair hand, that's fine, your bluff doesn't always have to work to be better than checking back with ten high. umbup:

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