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5nl Zoom 2 pair vs shove on the river

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  • 5nl Zoom 2 pair vs shove on the river

    18/12, Af 2/1/2 over 52 hands So how often does he bluff the river with the missed flush draw, how often does he represent a bluff with that big sizing? (with a flush) Could it be that he picked up my small size bet on the river and decided to push me out? Of the legit hands he might have I can think of JTs, JQs, JKs, all of clubs. I don't think a 45 is very likely. AJ would have raised the turn I think, as the flop sets, or maybe not, given his agression factor? How good is my fold here? and how good is my turn barrel? I picked up some equity against flush draws and couple of outs to a set/two pair.
    Last edited by Praydk; Sun Jun 16, 2013, 08:47 AM.

  • #2
    Hi pray,

    Big river bets are rarely bluffs in my experience. Especially raises. Especially all in. And especially from nits. There is almost no chance you're good here. There's always some fudge factor, but I would expect it to be very small in this scenario where you barrel all 3 streets and he shoves all in over you. Maybe 1-2% that it's a bluff. So 1-2% chance you're good.

    A good way to evaluate your turn bet is to ask yourself it it's a good value bet or a good bluff. It's not a great value bet imo as most worse hands won't call. A few draws sans pair, but that's it. It's also not a great bluff because most better hands won't fold. A few pairs below the ace that peeled once, but that's about all there. It is certainly not a horrible bet or anything, as there are some hands that fit into both categories and we do have a number of outs to improve our hand strength on the river. But check-calling would be a fine option here. Especially against a nitty player who won't really use their positional advantage to put pressure on us by bluffing 2 streets.
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