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5NL Zoom - 99 OTB facing called squeeze from BB

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  • 5NL Zoom - 99 OTB facing called squeeze from BB

    I'm aware of the rules for set-mining in that we should have roughly have implied odds of 15x to call. I've posted a hand below where I am just not sure whether I played it right at all. I had a legit hand to see a flop in position against a loose player raising from CO. I didnt want to 3bet and have him call, which I think he would have done based on the stats I had at the time, 38/23 over 13 hands (Small sample I know) and had called 100% of 3bets, which to be fair was a negligible sample size again. So I call. The BB is a nit, he 3bets a decent amount at 4.8%, not aware of how often he does this as a squeeze from the BB. He raises it bigger than the standard raise I would expect and the CO calls. I need to work hard on my ranging but BB stats over 776 hands is 9/7 so I am as usual putting him on a premium range. AA/KK/QQ/AK. The CO could have a wide range of hands IMO such as broadway cards and suited Aces. There is already a decent pot there and I decide to call the big bet. In hindsight I dont like my play too much as I cant reasonably expect to take both stacks if I hit my set. Is it ok to set mine in a multiway pot with the bigger pot already out there?

  • #2
    You clearly don't have the right odds to set-mine here, which is a shame, as you're virtually guaranteed to win the nit's stack when you flop a set vs his overpair.
    The reason I'd be folding is that the 3-bet to 70c means you need to call 55c, which is a large chunk of your starting stack. Even if we were only using implied odds of 10:1, then you need to win a minimum of 55c*10 = $5.50. No one has that much behind. For IO of 15:1, you need to win 55c*15 = $8.25.
    For this call to be profitable, you basically need both players to donate their stacks to you, but even with that happening, the implied odds are still only about 17:1.
    As a general guideline for set-mining in multiway pots, I'd want the effective stack to be 130bb+ to even consider calling a 3-bet squeeze. When everyone has closer to 100bb, it's a pretty easy fold.
    Last edited by ArtySmokesPS; Fri Jun 14, 2013, 02:03 AM.
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