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10nl - KK, flopped set on montone flop. Thin river value?

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  • 10nl - KK, flopped set on montone flop. Thin river value?

    The villain in the BB was a loose passive player playing 34/01/0 AF 1.4, over a 78 hands sample. Preflop I try to isolate the CO and end up getting HU with the weak player in the BB. Although the flop is somewhat scary due to it's monotone texture, flopping top set always calls for value bets vs this player type. I value bet the flop 2/3 pot, as the villain will call with such a wide range. OTT I decide to bet a little smaller going for half pot as I think the villain might fold some weaker hands if I bet too big. Is my bet sizing okay OTT? OTR he checks a third time and I'm unsure If I should be value betting the river and if so how big? When I barrel 3 times on this board texture it represent extreme strength and I think most 1 pair hands will fold. Could I try betting something like $1.80 trying to get called by a wide range that includes hands like JJ/TT. Or should I bet big, say around $2.50-$3.00 to get the maximum from 2 pair and sets. Obviously if we bet and he raises we can comfortably fold as it's extremely unlikely he'd take this line without the flopped flush.
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  • #2
    I like the preflop raise. You could even make it somewhat bigger like 42c-45c for some extra value without actually adding much fold equity. I like to switch it up depending on the villain as you want to raise as much as you think they will call.

    I think you could make it a little bigger on the flop. If he has a heart he probably wants to draw to it as you describe him as a weak player. Even if he does have a heart and hits it, you could still make a boat and you still have ~35% equity even IF he flopped the flush, which is very unlikely combinatorically. With him most likely being on a draw or a weak made hand and you still having outs in the worst case scenario and nice implied odds, I'd bet more here, around 70c-75c, give or take. If he x/r's you'd simply have to look at the pot odds to decide whether to call or fold.

    He checks again on the brick turn and you bet about half pot. I think this is fine, you could maybe go a little bit higher since the turn doesn't really change much, just not too much to keep the weaker part of his range in. Likely but not surely, if he had a flush, he'd probably let you know by now.

    I think a $1.80 bet OTR would be as much as he would call with pairs and worse sets, maybe somewhat smaller. If he shoves or raises you're very likely to be beat and can comfortably fold. Even if the 5 compeltes a couple of straight draws I think there's value to be had by betting. The key here is that he's a weak player and there are worse hands he could call with. Even if you could check behind since you have showdown value, I think it would leave some on the table, despite the 5 completing a couple of straight draws.

    (I'm probably not very good at actually analyzing hands, but you have to start somewhere )

    ....
    Last edited by Feskprins; Fri Jun 14, 2013, 06:01 AM.

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    • #3
      Hi Oli,

      Preflop looks good. We want the BB coming along so this is a spot where I would often flat KK pre vs. a raise instead of 3b to invite the BB to play... but with V3 limping definitely we want to put in the first raise, and the first one doesn't scare loose passive players so the BB will come along a lot anyway.

      Post flop I am all about a bet/bet/bet line here. The key thing to look at is your sizing. Bet big. This guy is another stationy type, if he's got a good pair or a good heart, he'll pay it. Flop you bet .60 into .95. This is good but I'm liking .85 even more. On the turn you bet 1.20 into 2.15. This is way too small imo. He called the big flop bet, so he's likely got a worse made hand or big heart... charge him, he will pay... value, value, value.

      I don't think we ever need to worry about being beat on the river... sometimes it happens I guess but he's checked to us yet again. I'm tempted to set him all in, although I don't like that it's an overbet of 6.18 into 4.55 now. At least $3 though, that's not quite half his stack and should get paid liberally by worse made hands.

      Scroll it back and run this sizing:

      Flop: .85 into .95, he calls, pot is 2.65 villain has 7.13 left

      Turn: 2.50 into 2.65, he calls, pot is 7.65 villain has 4.63 left

      River: easy all in for 60% of the pot

      Even if we soften the turn bet up for him, say 1.95 into 2.65, he calls, pot is 6.55 villain has 5.18 left, a river shove is only 80% pot.
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